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Post 96-hour India-Pakistan conflict, a fragile ceasefire hides deeper threats from a growing China-Pakistan axis, with India staring at a four-front hybrid war involving terror, tech, and territorial traps.
By Abhijit Bhattacharyya, Columnist and Author: Guns have fallen silent with cease-fire post 4-day India-Pakistan conflict. Fact’s, diplomats and politicians world over were on tizzy during this tense 96 hours. And the post-war “man-of-the-moment” expectedly is none other than the self-proclaimed Prima-Donna, US President Donald Trump who in his inimitable fastest-finger on social media button bombastically claimed full credit for cease-fire between Asian neighbours. As eerie peace descends on South Asia, what stand stark even now are two ongoing wars at the edge of the West, claiming thousands of lives every day.
Isn’t it, therefore, perplexing that when 39-month ongoing Europe war between two Christian states of Moscow and Kiev and 19-month Jewish Israel’s mass Muslim massacre go on and on, in Gaza, neither Christians nor Organisation of Islamic Conference show even minimum sense of urgency to stop violence? What worked behind conflict of Global South’s India-Paki 96-hour mutual hatred and revenge killings, shaking all, it didn’t stir the conscience of either Christians or the Muslim world when ceaseless slaughter became norm for months on? Why do Americas to Middle-East, and through to Europe, remain motionless with some cosmetic show of diplomacy and supply of guns to one of the belligerents?
Answer to this understandably lies in fear factor as both New Delhi and Islamabad are nuclear-armed foes and fought four major wars in 77 years. However, what makes situation worse is that India’s been bruised, bloodied and mauled more than 60 years by the Army-ISI duo sponsored terrorists in Pakistan and Communist Party of China (CPC) dictator Mao Zedong masterminded secessionist movements and Naxalite violence in North-east and Eastern India resulting in thousands of fatalities deep inside India.
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Let India not fall into complacency but face and brace for more trouble in near future, notwithstanding the fragile ceasefire of 10 May 2025. Henceforth, India’s bound to see more from Chinese through Clausewitz dictum- “War’s continuation of policy by other means” as has been happening intermittently. It may or may not be repeat of physically fatal gift of Galwan by Xi Jin Ping celebrating his birthday Monday 15 June 2020, but it’s to be through some “other means” and in different time and terrain for sure.
How can one be so confident? It’s because India’s stunning targeting of Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir terror camps had an entrenched presence of Chinese money, military, management and material. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is $ 68 billion venture of CPC which passes through Indian land of Kashmir (now occupied). From bi-lateral India-Paki issue, China’s brazenly and forcibly made J&K a trilateral matter thereby weakening India. Things have gone much beyond, to new form of war being waged by China through Beijing’s deep penetration into all of India’s neighbours.
Contextually, one may just see geographical length of India’s shared borders with neighbours which have been pierced by CPC more than four decades- Myanmar 1643-kilometre; Nepal 1751-kilometre; Pakistan 3323-kilometre; China 4056-kilometre and Bangladesh 4097-kilometre. Each of these countries is in grip of Chinese money, military equipment and various joint ventures which could very well create issues for New Delhi even if it’s against the wishes of India’s neighbours.
The Sino-Paki entente, in every possible sector, is inflicting financial and economic blow as New Delhi expenditure has exponentially shot up from border infrastructure, force mobilisation to hinterland preparation. CPC dictator war may not be with guns and bullets only, as it all starts with multi-fanged ideas running into various forms and forum.
Citing few instances, before, during and after the 4-day conflict would reveal the future contours of threat perception and overall security scenario for India. Post-Pahalgam massacre, China foreign minister Wang Yi has been in constant touch with Paki military and foreign ministry thereof. Wang found Indian assault on Paki Punjab and occupied-Kashmir “regrettable”. On 13 May western press reported that “China using Pakistan to test its military tech”. Bad news came 18 May from Dhaka which eased Paki business visa after years. Both, former East Pakistan and ex-West Pakistan of Jinnah and company are trying to tango afresh by forgetting 1971 and forging fresh front to fix New Delhi for sure. That same 18 May in Beijing Durbar the Paki foreign minister emphatically urged for every possible thing to deal with an anti-terrorist neighbour called India. Obviously, Paki without terror hubs only loses its importance in global stage. Remember Obama hunting of Osama Bin Laden in the lair of the army-ISI duo of Abbottabad garrison 2 May 2011, giving the whole of Paki the prime time slot in world media for several days? Didn’t it appear glory days of the terror state? Today, however, comes the most stunning shot from Telegraph London headline, 19 May- “”China moved satellites help Paki shoot down Indian jets”.
The info gleaned and referred to above, are all from open sources but they reveal consistent pattern. India cannot rest on its laurels of one-time hitting of terror targets because armed forces are there to fight war between states and not play guerrilla war with non-state actors. Terror’s a hydra-headed monster. More heads you cut, more time, money, energy and resources you lose. USA launched global war on terror (GWOT) to smash terrorists, their utopian state and bizarre ideology guiding all of their belief. The entire US forces of trained personnel were there all over Africa and Asia for more than 20 years. Trump negotiated with Taliban and Biden ordered withdrawal from terror land August 2021.
Here on, India faces war on four fronts- Beijing-Islamabad axis of twins; Dhaka and the 1751 open border of Kathmandu. Geography constitutes the gravest threat to India’s economics, polity, commerce, trade, banking, communication, and internal sabotage with enemy money.
Post-script. General Asim Munir made Field Marshal by so called civilian Paki government. Sino-Paki guns boom again?
(The Author is an alumnus of the National Defence College of India and author of China in India)
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views or stance of the organization. The organization assumes no responsibility for the content shared.
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