UP Election 2022: Akhilesh gains ground, but BJP set to win; Congress staring at wipeout, says new poll

Uttar Pradesh is witnessing a massive political and electoral faceoff between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Samajwadi Party. Currently, the BJP are clear favourites to retain power in India's most populous state, a new opinion poll has projected.

According to the Jan Ki Baat-India News survey, the BJP is seen to be coasting to yet another term in power with a projected tally of 226-246 seats in the 403-members Uttar Pradesh assembly. However, the latest trend is lower than the December 2021 projection of 233 to 252 seats and a far cry from the 299 seats won in the 2017 election.

One of the most important reasons for this marginal dip is the resurgence of the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party. The party is projected to win around 144 to 160 seats. A month ago, that tally was 135 to 149 seats. Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party is seen losing ground along with the Congress, which is projected to be staring at a total wipeout.

The poll projects that the BJP is expected to corner nearly 40 per cent of the total votes polled, followed by the Samajwadi Party (almost 36 per cent). The BSP may come a distant third as far as vote share is concerned, with around 13 per cent of the votes polled.

Yogi Adityanath's popularity remains intact among voters despite the recent desertions from the BJP. At least 56 per cent of the respondents endorsed him as the best chief ministerial face, while 32 per cent supported Akhilesh Yadav. 

Despite Yogi Adityanath's election candidature being finalised from Gorakhpur, 45 per cent of the respondents wanted the Chief Minister to contest from Mathura. In comparison, 30 per cent wanted to see him being fielded from Ayodhya. As for his opponent, Akhilesh Yadav, 50 per cent of people want to see him contest from Azamgarh, while 30 per cent want him to stand from Etawah and 10 per cent from Mainpuri.

The poll, which was conducted between December 22, 2021, and January 10, 2022, showed that 25 per cent of the respondents would vote based on caste and religion, while 20 per cent each would prefer to base their decision based on the development agenda and law and order.

At least 18 per cent of those surveyed said their vote would be based on the assessment of the government schemes, 10 per cent said they would take into account unemployment, and 5 per cent said they would consider the inflation situation.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity seems to be propelling the BJP forward in the state, with an overwhelming 85 per cent of the respondents saying that he would garner votes for the party in the assembly elections.

Interestingly, 70 per cent of respondents felt that the recent lapse in Prime Minister Modi's security could have an impact in Uttar Pradesh as well. Further analysis of the data revealed that at least 45 per cent of those surveyed believed that the Charanjit Singh Channi-led government in Punjab was responsible for the security lapse that saw the Prime Minister being stranded on the flyover for around 20 minutes. Another 25 per cent blamed the Punjab Police for the security lapse.

Caste equations

A closer look at the poll data revealed that while 45 respondents believed that Brahmins were unhappy with the Yogi Adityanath government, 55 per cent were either happy or unsure of the trend.

The poll data further notes that out of the 86 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes, the BJP could win 50, followed by Samajwadi Party (32) and the BSP (4).

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