Kazakhstan crash: Did Russia or Ukraine shoot down Azerbaijan Airlines plane? Videos fuel conspiracy theories
By Sunita Iyer | First Published Dec 26, 2024, 12:22 PM ISTConspiracy theories suggesting that Azerbaijan Airlines' plane was shot down by either Russian or Ukrainian air defenses are fueled by viral videos showing bullet holes, despite initial reports citing a bird strike and weather-related emergency landing.
Azerbaijan is in mourning on Friday following the devastating crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 passenger plane near Aktau, Kazakhstan. The crash, which occurred on the morning of December 25, resulted in the deaths of at least 38 people, including both passengers and crew members, while 32 survivors, many in critical condition, have been hospitalized. The incident is under investigation by authorities from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia, but amid the official inquiries, social media is rife with conspiracy theories and speculation surrounding the cause of the crash.
The crash and initial investigation
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Flight J2-8243, operated by Azerbaijan Airlines, was en route from Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital, to Grozny, the capital of the Chechen Republic in southern Russia, when it encountered difficulties. The plane was carrying 62 passengers and five crew members, including individuals from Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. The aircraft was diverted from its original route due to heavy fog in Grozny, the intended destination. As the weather worsened, the crew made the decision to divert to Aktau airport in Kazakhstan for an emergency landing.
According to preliminary reports from Russian aviation authorities, the crash occurred after the aircraft was forced to make an emergency landing due to an “emergency situation” onboard, which was reportedly triggered by a bird strike. The plane had been circling near Aktau airport before attempting to land, when it crashed just 3 kilometers from the city, killing 38 people, including both pilots.
In the aftermath, authorities quickly responded with emergency teams, including firefighters who extinguished the blaze and medical personnel who treated the injured. The investigation into the cause of the crash has been complicated by various theories circulating on social media, particularly claims that the plane was shot down by either Russian or Ukrainian air defenses.
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The passenger plane that crashed in Kazakhstan was hit by Russian air systems in the Caucasus region, which at the same time were trying to intercept Ukrainian drones.
I think it is very obvious how an Embraer 190 passenger jet with 67 people onboard crashed in Kazakhstan,… pic.twitter.com/InyRIF1YwO
Video from inside of crashed ✈
Wings of ✈ had got damaged prior to landing which might have caused imbalance
Also few reports ✈ may had hit by sharpnels prior route diversion.Not sure yet
Oly voice recording data b/w Pilot & ATC may provide true cause https://t.co/zH89nO0CZg pic.twitter.com/lw9ov0vtdu
Conspiracy theories emerge: Was the plane shot down?
In the hours following the crash, a series of videos surfaced on social media showing disturbing images of the wreckage, with purported bullet holes visible on the fuselage of the aircraft. These holes, which some observers claimed appeared to be from shrapnel or small arms fire, have fueled rampant conspiracy theories suggesting that the plane was shot down, either by Russian air defenses or as part of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Some online commentators have speculated that the plane was targeted by Russian air defense systems as part of the broader defense efforts against Ukrainian drones in the region. According to these theories, the timing of the crash, along with the aircraft’s deviation from its original route, suggests that it may have been caught in the crossfire between Russian forces attempting to intercept Ukrainian drone attacks. However, there is no definitive evidence to support these claims, and experts caution that it is premature to draw any conclusions based on the available footage.
A Russian military blogger claimed that “the damage to the aircraft suggests that plane may have been accidentally struck by an air-defence missile system”.
Grozny is heavily fortified, as Chechnya and Ramzan Kadyrov's fighters play a crucial role in supporting the Kremlin during Russia's ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine, making the Chechen capital a possible target for Ukrainian drones.
If verified, this incident could be linked to the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 by Russian-backed forces in Donbas, which was also struck by a surface-to-air missile.
One of the key points fueling the speculation is the apparent GPS jamming in the region, a phenomenon that has been linked to previous aviation incidents. Flight tracking websites reported unusual movements of the plane shortly before the crash, with the aircraft circling near Aktau airport before disappearing from radar. While this could point to potential technical difficulties, some have suggested that the disruption might have been caused by military activity in the region, including potential air defense operations.
These videos prove that the cause of the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 in Kazakhstan was not "bird strikes" as was claimed earlier but rather anti aircraft weapon and/or apparently even small arms fire.
Bullet holes can be seen in the plane from witnesses on the… pic.twitter.com/N23hJaWkFO
Kazakhstan's Deputy Prime Minister, Kanat Bozumbayev, has also publicly stated that while there are numerous theories regarding the cause of the crash, it is too early to make definitive statements about the involvement of military actions. "I dare not make premature statements," he said in response to questions about whether the plane was shot down. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev echoed this caution, urging the public to refrain from speculating about the cause of the crash until the official investigation is complete.
Official responses and continuing investigation
Despite the widespread rumors, the official investigations are focusing on a variety of potential causes, including technical malfunctions and airspace disruptions. Azerbaijani authorities have dispatched an investigative team, including the Deputy Prosecutor General of Azerbaijan and officials from Azerbaijan Airlines, to the crash site in Kazakhstan. They are working alongside local investigators to determine the cause of the crash. The plane’s black box, a key piece of evidence, has been recovered, and the investigation into the technical aspects of the crash is ongoing.
In a statement, President Aliyev confirmed that a criminal case had been launched in Azerbaijan, and that the public would be regularly informed about the progress of the investigation. Kazakh officials have also established a government commission to support the investigation and provide assistance to the families of the victims.
In the meantime, Azerbaijan Airlines has suspended all flights between Baku and Grozny, as well as Baku and Makhachkala, Russia, until further notice. The airline has also set up a hotline for families of the passengers and has published the names of the victims on its social media channels.
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