India to overtake China as world's most populous country by mid-2023: UN estimates

Population experts using previous UN data have projected that India would go past China this month. But the latest report from the global body did not specify a date for when the change would take place.

A data released by the United Nations on Wednesday (April 19) revealed that India is on its way to becoming the world's most populous country, overtaking China with almost 3 million more people in the middle of this year.

The data from the United Nations Population Fund's (UNFPA) "State of World Population Report, 2023" estimates India's population at 1,428.6 million or 1.4286 billion against 1.4257 billion for China.

According to reports, the United States is a distant third, with an estimated population of 340 million. The data reflects information available as of February 2023, the report said.

Population experts using previous UN data have projected that India would go past China this month. But the latest report from the global body did not specify a date for when the change would take place.

Owing to "uncertainty" regarding the statistics coming out of China and India, UN population experts have stated that it is hard to identify a date. This is particularly true given that India's previous census was performed in 2011 and that the country's next 2021 census has been postponed owing to the pandemic.

It is reportedly said that India and China will account for more than one-third of the estimated global population of 8.045 billion, the population growth in both Asian giants has been slowing, at a much faster pace in China than in India.

In 2022, the population of China fell for the first time in six decades, a historic turn that is expected to mark the start of a long period of decline in its citizen numbers with profound implications for its economy and the world.

According to government data, India's annual population growth has averaged 1.2 percent since 2011, compared with 1.7 percent in the 10 years previously.

In a statement, Andrea Wojnar, Representative for UNFPA India said, "The Indian survey findings suggest that population anxieties have seeped into large portions of the general public."