OPEC Slashes 2025 Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast Citing Q1 Data, US Tariffs

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) to reflect data received for the first quarter and the recently announced U.S. tariffs.

The figure has been revised down by 150,000 barrels per day.

The group has also revised its 2026 global oil demand growth estimates and expects the figure to hit 1.28 mb/d, compared to the 1.45mb/d projected earlier.

OPEC said that oil demand is expected to be supported by strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility, including on-road diesel and trucking, as well as industrial, construction, and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries.

Capacity additions and petrochemical margins in non-OECD (The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries – mostly in China and the Middle East – are expected to contribute to oil demand growth, it added.

The group acknowledged that the forecast is subject to uncertainties surrounding global economic developments amid the new trade tariffs announced by the US.

At the same time, OPEC cut its global economic growth forecasts marginally to 3% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026.

“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year; however, the near-term trajectory is now subject to higher uncertainty given the recent tariff-related dynamics,” it said.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures maturing in May were trading 1.5% higher on Monday morning, while Brent crude futures maturing in June traded 1.37% higher.

The United States Oil Fund LP (USO) was up by 1.47% in Monday’s pre-market, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO) was up over 3%.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<