One-Two Punch For Oil Stocks: OPEC+ Output Hike Piles On Trump Tariff Fallout, Retail Sentiment Sours

Oil stocks dived on Thursday after a double blow of President Trump’s tariffs and an unexpected output hike by OPEC+ dampened investor sentiment.

Oil prices came under pressure after eight member countries of the producer group, including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia, agreed to boost output by 411,000 barrels per day in May, compared to a 135,000 bpd hike expected earlier.

OPEC+ said the decision was taken considering healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook.

Since 2022, the producer group has been curtailing production to support oil prices, cutting output by 5.85 million bpd. Last month, OPEC+ agreed to gradually restore 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of production by 2026, starting in April.

The group's decision came after Donald Trump unveiled a minimum 10% tariff on most goods imported into the U.S. on Wednesday, raising concerns about a global trade war that could hinder oil demand.

According to a Bloomberg report, JP Morgan has raised the probability of a global recession from 60% to 40%.

“The effect of this tax hike is likely to be magnified—through retaliation, a slide in U.S. business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions,” JP Morgan’s Chief Economist Bruce Kasman wrote in a note.

Goldman Sachs cut its December 2025 Brent crude oil and WTI oil price forecasts by $5, to $66 and $62, respectively.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) and Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) fell by 7.9% each.

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits moved to ‘extremely bearish’ (17/100) territory from ‘bearish’(30/100) a day ago, while retail chatter was ‘high.’

APA Corp slid 16.5%, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) fell 11.1%, while Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) declined 5.3% and 6.2%, respectively, on Thursday.

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