The IMD forecasts above-normal rainfall for August and September, due to potential La Niña conditions. While August might see a temporary lull in monsoon activity, it won't affect overall rainfall significantly. September's La Niña-induced rains could increase urban flooding, inundation in low-lying areas, and landslides in hilly regions.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts that the latter half of the monsoon season (August-September) will likely experience above-normal rainfall due to the potential formation of La Nina conditions by the end of this month. Although August may witness a brief pause in monsoon activity mid-month, it won't significantly impact the overall rainfall during these two crucial months for Kharif sowing and crop growth. However, the La Nina-induced rains in September may lead to increased instances of urban flooding, low-lying area inundation, and landslides in hilly regions.
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La Nina, a cyclical phenomenon characterized by cooler ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, typically bodes well for India's monsoon rainfall. However, despite this favorable condition, some regions in the country may still receive deficient rainfall, similar to the eight states that experienced below-normal rainfall in July.
According to IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, "During the second half of the monsoon season, normal to above normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country, except many parts of northeast and adjoining areas of east India, Ladakh, Saurashtra & Kutch, and some isolated pockets of central and peninsular India where below normal rainfall is likely."
Despite an 11% shortfall in monsoon rainfall in June, farming activities in various parts of the country continued uninterrupted, thanks to groundwater-based irrigation. Although rainfall distribution was uneven, July ultimately ended with a 9% surplus, enabling farmers to expand cultivation in rain-dependent areas. As a result, the total area under cultivation reached 812 lakh hectares by last Friday, marking an increase of 18 lakh hectares compared to the same period last year.