Karnataka Election 2023: Asianet News-Jan Ki Baat opinion poll predicts hung assembly; BJP-Cong neck-to-neck

Karnataka Election 2023: The upcoming election is expected to be a close fight between the BJP, Congress and Janata Dal (Secular). An opinion poll commissioned by Asianet News Network and conducted by Jan Ki Baat has predicted which political party may form the government. It gave insights about the vote share, seat share and other details.

The forthcoming election in Karnataka is expected to witness a close contest between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress, with Janata Dal (Secular) holding power to become kingmaker again. An opinion poll commissioned by Asianet News Network and conducted by Jan Ki Baat has predicted the upcoming Karnataka Election 2023 would result in a hung assembly, with no party achieving an absolute majority. 

The Asianet News-Jan Ki Baat opinion poll predicts that the Narendra Modi-led BJP is likely to secure 98-109 seats, while the Congress, JD(S) and Others are expected to bag 89-97, 25-29 and 0-1 seats, respectively. 

The BJP seeks to return to power in the state, its only bastion in southern India. However, the magic number 113 is necessary for any party to obtain a simple majority and form the government independently. Voting for the 224-member Karnataka Assembly will take place on May 10, and the results will be declared on May 13. 

A deep dive into the Asianet News-Jan Ki Baat opinion poll data for the upcoming Karnataka Election 2023 has revealed the following key highlights:

1) Vote share: Although the opinion poll predicts that BJP will likely win more seats than Congress, the vote share percentage tells a slightly different story. Congress is expected to get about 38-40 per cent vote share, while the BJP is expected to get around 37-39 per cent, slightly less than the Grand Old Party. Though Congress is expected to gain more vote share than the BJP, the marginal difference in vote share may not translate into a significant lead for the party in terms of winning seats. JD(S) is expected to get about 16-18 per cent vote share, and others are expected to get a 5-7 per cent vote share.

2) The opinion poll has predicted an anti-incumbency in the upcoming Karnataka Election, and the ruling BJP is expected to lose some seats. The Congress is predicted to gain some seats compared to the last assembly polls. However, despite the anti-incumbency factor, the opinion poll reveals that Congress may not secure a majority. The anti-incumbency needs to be stronger to wash out the ruling government or give Congress walk away wins.

3) Region-wise numbers: As per the opinion poll, the Old Mysore region is expected to see a close contest between Congress and JD(S), with the Grand Old Party likely to bag 23 seats while the HD Kumaraswamy-led party could get 22 seats. BJP is predicted to win 12 seats.

4) In the Bengaluru region, the fight in the upcoming Karnataka Election 2023 is expected to be tight between BJP and Congress. The opinion poll predicts BJP could win 15 seats, while Congress and JD(S) could secure 14 and 3 seats, respectively.

5) In Central Karnataka, the opinion poll predicts BJP is likely to win 13 seats, while Congress is expected to come a close second with a victory in 12 seats. JD(S) is expected to win only one seat in this region.

6) In the Hyderabad Karnataka region, Congress is expected to win 23 seats, followed by BJP, which is likely to win 16 seats and JD(S) is expected to win only one seat here.

7) In Mumbai Karnataka, BJP is expected to win big with 31 seats, while Congress is likely to bag 19 seats, leaving JD(S) with no victory in this region.

8) The opinion poll predicts BJP to win big in the Coastal Karnataka region with 16 seats. Congress is expected to bag 3 seats and no success for JD(S) is expected here.

The survey for the opinion poll was performed using 20,000 random samples across Karnataka between March 15 and April 11 using a probability map of the result model. When this survey was done, most party candidates had yet to be declared. Of the 224 constituencies, 36 seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes and 15 for Scheduled Tribes. 

A total of 5.24 crore voters are eligible to exercise their franchise and can cast their votes across 58,282 polling stations.