Gujarat Mandate 2022: Asianet News prediction comes true; BJP marches to historic 7th consecutive term

In October 2022, Asianet News Network-Cfore survey had predicted the Bharatiya Janata Party's victory with a thumping majority.for a record seventh consecutive time.

In what has reinforced the saffron party's domination in Gujarat, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Thursday eclipsed the Congress' record of 149 seats to register a thumping victory in the 182-member Assembly. As predicted by Asianet News Network in October, the Narendra Modi-led BJP returned to power for the 7th consecutive time in a state where it has not lost an election since 1995.

After registering initial gains, Congress and AAP slipped while the BJP continued improving its tally to cross the historic 150 mark. As per the latest trends, the BJP bagged 157* seats, breaking the Congress' record of 149 seats won in the 1985 election under the leadership of Madhavsinh Solanki. Meanwhile, the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) bagged 16* and 5* seats in the 2022 polls, respectively. The numbers reflect that the saffron party received approximately 53 per cent vote share, which is close to the 48 per cent vote share predicted in a pre-poll survey commissioned by Asianet News Network and conducted by Cfore.

The survey, which took the opinion of 1,82,557 voters across 182 assembly constituencies, had predicted BJP's return to power with 133-143 seats, while the Congress and AAP were expected to secure 28-37 and 5-14 seats, respectively. The pre-poll survey also projected Congress and AAP would get 31 and 16 per cent votes, respectively.

The Asianet News-Cfore pre-poll survey found that PM Narendra Modi's image and the development work done by his government in Gujarat, under the chief ministership of Bhupendra Patel, are the primary reasons BJP is the favoured party. 

We also found that rising inflation, a sluggish economy, and unemployment are some problems facing the Modi administration. However, the BJP's standing in Gujarat, which has been a stronghold of the party for decades and where Modi served as chief minister from 2001 to 2014, remains unaffected.

The results of the two-phase elections in Gujarat were also closely followed to gauge the performance of the Congress and new poll entrant AAP, who were locked in an intense battle to grab the status of the main opposition party in the state. 

As predicted by Asianet News earlier, the Congress was not expected to replicate its performance in the 2017 Assembly elections, and AAP was forecasted to attract more Congress votes. 

As per the October pre-poll survey, people voted for the Grand Old Party primarily because they were unhappy with BJP's performance in the state. Since Rahul Gandhi, who had vigorously campaigned in the 2017 elections, opted to stay absent to concentrate on the Bharat Jodo Yatra, the Congress' campaign was largely carried out by local officials and has relied on door-to-door canvassing for votes. But Thursday's results, which saw a drop of around 14 per cent vote share since 2017, reflect that the party failed to cut ice with the people of Gujarat.

As far as AAP is concerned, as expected by Asianet News Network, a handful of people voted for the party because of the freebies and promises made while they campaigned in Gujarat. Emboldened by the victory in the Delhi municipal elections, the AAP hoped its politics of welfarism would be accepted by the people in Gujarat. Thursday's results show that nearly 13 per cent people of Gujarat are willing to give in. However, it remains to be seen if this performance by the AAP will help its leader Arvind Kejriwal cement his place as a key challenger to PM Narendra Modi in the parliamentary elections due in 2024. 

The above numbers and predictions reflect how Asianet News Network's survey captures the mood of the voters in a poll-bound state accurately. Asianet News Network's prediction has come true before. Last year, we predicted the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government's return to power in Uttar Pradesh, which was spot on as the saffron party comfortably won the mandate earlier this year. The Gujarat mandate 2022 reinforces that when it comes to election predictions, Asianet News Network is the most credible source.

* The total number of seats won/leading is based on the Gujarat results status as on 3:00 PM on ECI's official website