Explained: What Assad's fall in Syria means for India's geopolitical interests

Over the decades, the Indian government has maintained a strong bilateral relationship with Damascus, supporting Syria on issues like the Palestinian cause and the Golan Heights while receiving backing on sensitive topics like Kashmir.

The ousting of Bashar al-Assad by Islamist rebel factions in Syria marks a major geopolitical shift with wide-ranging implications for India, a nation that shares a deep-rooted historical and diplomatic relationship with the Arab Republic. In India's Middle East strategy, Syria has been a key player and changes in its political leadership could alter these dynamics.

A historical ally:

The ties between India and Syria's are built on shared civilisational, cultural, and political values. Over the decades, the Indian government has maintained a strong bilateral relationship with Damascus, supporting Syria on issues like the Palestinian cause and the Golan Heights while receiving backing on sensitive topics like Kashmir.

Even during Syria's civil war, which erupted in 2011, India refrained from isolating the Assad regime, calling for a Syrian-led political resolution.

India's stance at international forums has often reflected its solidarity with Syria. It opposed sanctions against Assad's government and emphasized humanitarian concerns during the COVID-19 pandemic. India's embassy in Damascus remained operational.

Economic stakes in Syria:

In Syria, India has substantial economic investments. A $240 million line of credit supports the Tishreen Thermal Power Plant project. Investments in IT infrastructure, oil, and fertilizers further underline India's commitment. The Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has partnered in significant energy ventures, including oil exploration agreements and joint investments with Chinese firms.

Moreover, India's long-term vision includes integrating Syria into the India-Gulf-Suez Canal-Mediterranean corridor, enhancing trade routes between South Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

The uncertain future:

The fall of Assad raises critical concerns for India's interests. The possibility of a Hayat Tahrir al-Sham-led government—aligned with extremist ideologies—could create a volatile environment, jeopardising Indian investments and regional stability. A resurgence of ISIS remains another looming threat.