BJP-Sena-NCP alliance to retain Maharashtra; NDA to wrest Jharkhand. What different Exit Polls predict?
By Shweta Kumari | First Published Nov 20, 2024, 7:19 PM ISTTwo exit polls -- Matrize and People's Pulse -- have predicted a clean sweep for the NDA in both Maharashtra and Jharkhand, though one seems to have a divided opinion and gives a slim chance to the INDIA alliance. A fourth predicts a hung house, with Independents and smaller parties playing kingmaker.
Two exit polls -- Matrize and People's Pulse -- have predicted a return of the ruling alliance in Maharashtra. The NDA, they have predicted, will also bag Jharkhand, with the INDIA alliance trailing far back in both states.
Voting for Maharashtra’s 288 assembly seats concluded on Wednesday, marking the end of the single-phase elections. While the fate of candidates remains sealed in EVMs until the results are declared on November 23, exit poll data predictions indicate a strong likelihood of the ruling Mahayuti coalition retaining power in the state.
Exit poll projections: A favorable outlook for Mahayuti
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According to the Matrize exit poll survey, the Mahayuti coalition is expected to secure 150-170 seats, whereas the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is projected to win between 110 and 130 seats. Smaller parties and independents may account for 8-10 seats.
Similarly, Chanakya Strategies predicts a robust performance for the Mahayuti, estimating their tally at 152-160 seats, while the MVA is projected to garner 130-138 seats. Others are likely to clinch 6-8 seats.
The high-stakes electoral battle in Maharashtra pits the ruling Mahayuti alliance, comprising the BJP, the Eknath Shinde faction of Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar’s faction of the NCP, against the opposition MVA coalition. The MVA features the Congress, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena faction, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction.
Key seat distribution in the alliances underscores the fierce competition:
Mahayuti: BJP contested 149 seats, Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) 81, and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) 59.
MVA: Congress fielded candidates in 101 constituencies, Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction) in 95, and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) in 86.
Other notable players in the election include the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) with 237 candidates and AIMIM contesting 17 seats.
The Mahayuti coalition currently governs Maharashtra, having formed an alliance after a dramatic political reshuffle in recent years. Despite challenges from a united opposition, exit polls suggest that their voter base remains intact.
Jharkhand exit polls
In Jharkhand's 81-seat assembly elections, the second and final phase of voting concluded on Wednesday. The election saw ballots cast for 38 seats in this phase. According to various exit polls, the INDIA coalition, currently in power under Chief Minister Hemant Soren, may lose its grip on the state. The BJP-led NDA appears poised to claim victory and form the next government.
Exit Poll Insights
MATRIZE's survey forecasts a landslide for the NDA, predicting 46 seats for the alliance, leaving INDIA with 29 and others securing just 6 seats.
News18-Matrize Exit Poll projects a similar trend, estimating 42–47 seats for the NDA, while INDIA may garner 25–37 seats. Others could win 5–9 seats.
People’s Pulse Exit Poll suggests the NDA could clinch between 44 and 53 seats, with INDIA expected to win 25–37 and others claiming 5–9 seats.
JVC Exit Poll presents a closer contest, predicting 40–44 seats for the NDA, 30–40 for INDIA, and just one seat for other parties.
Chanakya Strategies Exit Poll further cements the NDA's position, estimating 45–50 seats for the alliance, 35–38 for INDIA, and 3–5 for others.
The Main Contenders
The battle for Jharkhand’s assembly has primarily been a face-off between the NDA and the INDIA coalition. The NDA comprises the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU). The INDIA alliance, on the other hand, includes the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and leftist parties, all rallying behind Hemant Soren's leadership.
If the exit polls hold true, the NDA is set to return to power with a comfortable majority, disrupting the INDIA coalition's tenure. Such a result would signify a significant political shift in Jharkhand and add to the BJP's momentum on the national stage.
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