Viewpoint: 'Ab Ki Baar 400 Paar?' Just go by the numbers
By Team Asianet Newsable | First Published Mar 28, 2024, 11:38 PM ISTDespite scepticism, the BJP surpassed expectations in previous elections, securing impressive victories and expanding its influence across various states. Congress, on the other hand, is witnessing a decline in its political stature, with its presence limited to only a few states, says Prem Shukla
The nomination process for candidates in the initial phase of Lok Sabha elections has concluded. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's declaration of 'Ab Ki Baar 400 Paar' has sparked questions from the opposition regarding how the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will achieve this feat. PM Modi has set a target of 370 seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Back in 1951, when the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, the precursor to the BJP, was founded, its inaugural president Dr Shyama Prasad Mukherjee had resolved to abolish the temporary Article 370 pertaining to Jammu and Kashmir in the Indian Constitution. Narendra Modi's government fulfilled this resolution on 5 August 2019. Consequently, the PM has pledged to all BJP workers that by increasing BJP's support by 370 votes at every polling booth, as a tribute to Dr Syama Prasad Mukherjee, the BJP will secure 370 seats independently.
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In 2014, when the BJP, led by Narendra Modi, rallied under the slogan of '272+', sceptics from opposition parties and their allies raised doubts about BJP's ability to secure 272 seats, especially given its limited presence in South and North-East India. However, to their surprise, the BJP clinched 282 seats, surpassing expectations and leaving analysts and opponents stunned.
A similar scenario unfolded in the 2019 elections. Preceding the elections, the BJP faced setbacks in assembly polls across Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram. Despite BJP's stronghold in states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, Congress emerged victorious in these key battlegrounds. Buoyed by this success, Congress leaders and their allies anticipated a decline in BJP's Lok Sabha seats, particularly in states where they had faced assembly defeats.
Additionally, in Uttar Pradesh, the largest state, the alliance between the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, erstwhile political adversaries, posed a formidable challenge. Despite scepticism, the BJP, led by Narendra Modi, remained undeterred, rallying under the slogan 'Ab Ki Baar 300 Paar'. Despite widespread scepticism from opinion polls and political analysts, the BJP achieved an astounding mandate of 303 seats, leaving pundits speechless.
The surge of support for the BJP under Narendra Modi's leadership did not materialize overnight. It is the culmination of years of dedication and hard work. In 2014, when Narendra Modi sought a decisive mandate for the BJP, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) held power in only 7 states, with the BJP governing just 5 states: Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Goa. At that juncture, with only 10 MPs and 42 MLAs in Uttar Pradesh, political analysts were sceptical about the BJP's prospects as a multi-regional party.
Fast forward to today, with Narendra Modi championing the slogan of 'This time 400 paar', the NDA now governs in 17 states, with the BJP leading in 12 states independently. These include Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Goa, Assam, Tripura, Manipur, and Arunachal Pradesh. Additionally, the NDA holds sway in Maharashtra, Bihar, Meghalaya, Nagaland, and Sikkim, reflecting the significant expansion of BJP's influence across the country under Modi's leadership.
When Narendra Modi was first projected as the Prime Ministerial candidate by the BJP, NDA governments held sway over only 25 per cent of the nation's territory. Fast forward to the present, and the BJP now governs 58% of the land area and represents 57% of the total population. In 2014, the BJP had fewer than 1000 MLAs, but today, the party boasts 1485 MLAs nationwide. The NDA, on the other hand, commands a total of 1894 MLAs. Contrasted with the Congress, which boasted 1501 MLAs across the nation in 1993, the party now has a mere 644 MLAs.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, only 136 BJP MPs secured 50 per cent or more of the votes. However, in 2019, the BJP clinched victory in 224 seats with more than 50% of the votes.
Looking back at recent elections, in 2009, the BJP secured just 1 Lok Sabha seat with a winning margin exceeding 3 lakh votes. Fast forward to 2019, and this number surged to 105 seats where the BJP triumphed by 3 lakh or more votes. Additionally, in 2019, the BJP clinched victory on 224 seats where it garnered more than 50 per cent of the votes. Moreover, approximately 35 seats saw BJP candidates receiving more votes than the combined tally of the second and third-placed candidates.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP's seat tally soared by 21 seats to 303 compared to 2014, accompanied by an 8 per cent increase in vote share. Given this momentum, one might ponder whether the BJP can achieve its target of 370 seats. Since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has emerged victorious in 30 out of 53 assembly elections held across the country.
Since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, there have been by-elections conducted on 372 assembly seats across the country. Out of these, the NDA emerged victorious with a maximum of 175 seats. During this period, the BJP has maintained a victory percentage of over 40 in assembly by-elections. In contrast, the Congress party has only secured 11% of the seats. Notably, in both the 2014 and 2019 elections, the BJP secured over 50% of the vote share on all 26 seats in Gujarat. Similarly, in Delhi and Haryana, the BJP's vote share has consistently exceeded 50% in every seat.
Turning to Uttar Pradesh, the largest state in the country, in the 2014 elections, the BJP secured victory on only 17 seats with a vote share of more than 50%. However, in the 2019 elections, this number surged to 40 seats where BJP candidates garnered more than 50% of the votes.
In Tripura and Manipur, the BJP has risen from obscurity to authority. Currently, the BJP holds a majority in both states. In West Bengal, the BJP has made significant strides, increasing its representation from 3 to 77 assembly seats. Once a challenging terrain for BJP MLAs to assert themselves, West Bengal now sees the party as the primary opposition force. With only 3 MLAs previously, the BJP secured success in 18 Lok Sabha seats in Bengal. Now, with 77 MLAs, the potential success of the BJP seems promising. Similarly, in Telangana, where the BJP once had just 1 MLA, the party won 4 Lok Sabha seats. With 8 BJP MLAs now, the prospects for increasing Lok Sabha seats appear favourable. Furthermore, the BJP has demonstrated strong performance in the local body elections of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, suggesting the potential for success in both states.
The BJP has secured victory in Gujarat for the seventh consecutive term, clinching a record-breaking 156 out of 182 seats in the Gujarat Legislative Assembly elections. This translates to a triumph on more than 85% of the seats. Moreover, Congress MLAs are defecting to the BJP, signifying a significant shift in political allegiance. If the Congress MLAs continue to maintain their positions, it would mark a substantial success for the BJP.
In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP has formed the government for the fifth consecutive time, capturing 163 seats out of 230. Despite falling short of a clear majority, the BJP demonstrated its dominance in the Lok Sabha elections by securing victories in 28 out of 29 parliamentary seats. The question now looms whether Congress can retain the Chhindwara seat amidst BJP's mounting influence.
Congress is facing a significant decline across various states, with its presence now limited to the Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh governments. Moreover, six Congress MLAs from Himachal Pradesh have recently switched allegiance to the BJP, indicating a further weakening of Congress's grip. It's only a matter of time before Congress loses its foothold in Himachal Pradesh as well. India is on the verge of becoming Congress-free, with the BJP-led NDA poised to surpass the target of 400 seats under its leadership.
The author is a National Spokesperson of the Bharatiya Janata Party. Views expressed are personal.
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