IMD predicts a winter of sharp contrasts: colder spells in central and northwest India but warmer conditions in the Himalayas and northeast, driven by weak La Nina and shifting weather patterns.
Even before December chill settles fully across India, the seasonal outlook is here — and it points to a winter that might feel anything but typical. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday released its three-month forecast (December 2025–February 2026), signalling shifting patterns that will bring colder plains and warmer hills.
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Colder Central, Northwest and Peninsular India
According to IMD, normal to below-normal temperatures are expected across central India as well as adjoining northwest and peninsular regions during the winter months.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, speaking during an online press conference, detailed:
"During the upcoming winter season (December 2025 to February 2026), normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of central India and adjoining peninsular and northwest India. Above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over the remaining parts of the country."
He added that maximum temperatures are also expected to stay normal to below-normal over much of India.
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Himalayas and Northeast Likely to Feel Warmer
In contrast, the western Himalayan region, the Himalayan foothills, the northeastern states, and parts of eastern and western India may see above-normal maximum temperatures — a reversal of what winter feels like traditionally in these regions.
One of the significant red flags raised in the forecast is the higher number of cold wave days.
IMD is expecting four to five “extra” days of cold wave conditions in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, and some parts of Maharashtra.
Typically, these states see four to six days of cold waves between December and February. This implies noticeably harsher bursts of cold this season.
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Cold Snap Has Already Begun Early
Winter has already made an aggressive early appearance:
Nov 8–18: Cold to severe cold wave conditions in patches of northeast Rajasthan, south Haryana, north Madhya Pradesh, south Uttar Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh
Nov 15 & 20: Cold wave also recorded in north interior Maharashtra
And it isn’t stopping here. Mohapatra warned:
"Another cold wave spell is expected in parts of northwest and central India from December 3 to 5."
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Weak La Nina Still Influencing India’s Weather
The IMD says a global climate driver is still shaping Indian winter:
"We are expecting weak La Nina conditions to continue during the December to February period," Mohapatra said.
La Nina — the cooling of ocean waters in the central and eastern Pacific — often strengthens monsoon rainfall and leads to colder-than-usual winters, especially in north India. But since this phase is weak, its effects are more regional and uneven this year.
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Western Disturbances Bring Dry Influence
November registered four western disturbances — Mediterranean-origin weather systems that tend to trigger rain or snow in the north. However, almost all remained mostly dry, limiting their effect on winter buildup.
Despite that, normal to below-normal November temperatures were observed across most of the country, except:
Southeast peninsular India
Parts of the northeast
Extreme northwest India
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A Winter with Surprises Ahead
As India heads deeper into winter, the message from the IMD is clear: expect pockets of harsh cold, but don’t be surprised if mountains feel milder and some regions dodge the chill entirely.
With weak La Nina patterns, changing weather systems, and uneven cold waves, this season could redefine what winter feels like for millions.
