Uttarakhand Election 2022: New opinion poll shows BJP surviving Congress challenge

The opinion poll conducted by India News-Jan ki Baat projects the BJP to win around 34-39 seats in the 70-member state assembly followed by the Congress which expected to win 27-33 seats.

The Bharatiya Janata Party may manage to hold on to power in Uttarakhand with a new opinion poll predicting a slender edge for the party over the Congress in the state assembly elections. The poll, conducted between January 31, 2021, and February 5, 2022, took the views of 4000 people from the state. 

The opinion poll conducted by India News-Jan ki Baat projects the BJP to win around 34-39 seats in the 70-member state assembly followed by the Congress which is expected to win 27-33 seats. Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party is expected to win 2-4 seats in the 2022 election.

The survey found that at least 40 per cent of the respondents voted for the BJP to see Pushkar Singh Dhami return as chief minister. The Congress party is seen garnering a vote share of 38 per cent followed by AAP (11 per cent), BSP (two per cent) and Others (nine per cent).

BJP's edge in the 2022 assembly elections comes from the Garhwal region where the party is expected to win 21 out of the 41 seats followed by Congress with 16 seats. But the battle gets intense in the 29-seat Kumaon region where the Congress is seen to be winning 14 seats followed by 13 for the BJP.

Overall, 43 per cent of the respondents had a favourable opinion about the BJP government in the state while a combined 57 per cent rated it either average or poor.

As for the major issues that would influence the way voters in the state will exercise their franchise, 25 per cent of respondents said they would vote based on the candidate's face and another 25 per cent saw migration as a major issue. According to the poll data, 18 per cent of the voters picked development as the biggest issue followed by inflation (12 per cent), health (10 per cent) and education (10 per cent).

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Caste and community dynamics

The India News-Jan ki Baat survey highlighted a clear fragmentation of the voter base in the state. While the Brahmins (48 per cent) and the Rajputs (45 per cent) were seen to be endorsing the BJP, the Congress is projected to secure overwhelming support from the Muslim community (80 per cent) and the Scheduled Caste (40 per cent).

The AAP and the Congress seem to be sharing the Sikh community votes with the former projected to garner 35 per cent of the votes while the grand old party could 38 per cent of the community votes.

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