Russia-Ukraine flare-up: Why Kyiv could be 'the new Berlin'

Asianet Newsable spoke to Dr Swaran Singh, Professor for Diplomacy and Disarmament at the Jawaharlal Nehru University to understand the dynamics in eastern Ukraine closely

Russia-Ukraine flare-up explained Why Kyiv could be the new Berlin

Anish Kumar

New Delhi, First Published Feb 23, 2022, 8:00 AM IST

With Russian President Vladimir Putin recognizing two rebel-held regions in eastern Ukraine as independent states and moving his troops into position there, the situation has turned even more volatile. Even as the West accuses Moscow of creating a pretext of war, Asianet Newsable spoke to Dr Swaran Singh, Professor for Diplomacy and Disarmament at the Jawaharlal Nehru University to understand the dynamics in eastern Ukraine closely. Read on...

What does Russia's recognition of two Ukrainian regions mean?

Russia's recognition of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) means that the period of Kyiv negotiating their autonomy is over. Now, the Russian forces are going to enter these two People's Republics as peacekeeping forces and not just ensure Russia's control in those regions which are currently under the control of what we called DPR and LPR, but they could even move beyond the ceasefire line to capture territories that were actually claimed by these two People's Republics.

So, this is now the end of the chapter of negotiating autonomy and that means that Kyiv is constantly coming under additional pressure and is appearing to be caving under pressure because once Russian forces are in this eastern Ukraine region, called Donetsk and Luhansk regions, they are not going to leave.

Earlier examples of Russian peacekeepers in the Transnistria region of Moldova or later Russia's presence after the annexation of Crimea are examples that once Russian forces come in they are going to be there even if western nations, including the United Nations, can keep passing resolutions on these being occupied territories that need to be vacated.

The past shows that once Russian forces have moved into some of these regions -- whether it is Georgia, Moldova, or Crimea -- they had stayed thereon and that is very likely now.

Indeed, the ambassador of Ukraine at UNSC used a very interesting expression to say additional 30,000 Russian forces are likely to enter DPR and LPR, which means according to Ukraine, Russians have been present in these two regions even before or since 2014.

So the fundamental argument I am making is that Kyiv had this long time to initiate negotiations with the rebels, to revive the Minsk agreement and protocols, and go back to the negotiations that have been halted since December 2019. But now the Minsk process is pushed to the dustbin of history now because now the Russian forces have moved in, declared these two People's Republics as independent nations just like Russia is the only country that recognizes South Ossetia and Abkhazia of Georgia as independent countries and Russia is present there.

In that sense, there is the end of chapter 'negotiating autonomy' and it is the beginning of the new chapter of two independent states. One can go back in history to the Czarist Russia or the former Soviet Union or now Russian Federation. They have always looked at ensuring their security by creating some buffer states between Russia or the Soviet Union and western powers (NATO).

Will Ukraine joins NATO?

NATO's precipitous expansion eastward, adding 14 more countries in the last 30 years has created paranoia or anxiety in Russian security establishments. Now, if the West is cultivating, co-opting, befriending Ukraine which can potentially be a NATO member, Russia has no other option but to carve out these two new small republics as new buffer states.

NATO has been very cautious. It has been formally discussing membership of Ukraine since 2008. Now in this limited territory, in fact, there is an argument now that Kyiv could be the new Berlin (Cold War history). Kyiv is on a riverbank Dnieper that divides Ukraine from north to south with one-third of Ukraine on the east and two-thirds of Ukraine on the west.

The Russian forces could even go as far as to capture entire eastern Ukraine -- east of this river that divides Ukraine. It means Ukraine will be only two-thirds of what it is today and that will be very difficult for NATO then to take it as a member. That's because NATO deployment will be in a territory that has Moldova has 1000 Russian soldiers in the trans-eastern, 30,000 soldiers in southwest Belarus as of today. The Black Sea is now surrounded by the Russian forces in Moldova, Belarus, Crimea and Russia. So NATO is further going to be circumspect to entertain the thought of having Ukraine as a member.

Is Ukraine a victim?

Ukraine is ultimately the victim; being kind of coaxed by NATO and western nations to be engaged in terms of changing the political system into a liberal democracy and free marketing, investments and so on is now paying the price. It is completely surrounded by Russia and some signs are very curious and interesting because not only has NATO moved its liaison office from Kyiv to Brussels they are even contemplating moving President Zelenskyy from Kyiv to Lavev, which is the western-most city. So what is NATO contemplating? Are they fighting or giving him asylum? What are they thinking?

Of course, Russia has suffered because of the eastward expansion of NATO. So many of the East European nations, including former Soviet Republics of Estonia and Lithuania, and three of the Baltic states have joined NATO. So NATO has pushed Russia a great deal. But today I think through this crisis, Putin expects to showcase the advantage that Russia has, both in terms of the track record of Putin dealing with these countries -- Moldova, Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan -- and also in terms of his impunity to deal with the domestic opposition and US election-rigging accusations. He is been a survivor in all these situations.

We will now have a permanent Russian presence in these so-called two republics at least and could be even moving more westwards from there.

The US has imposed a slew of sanctions in regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, which include blocking investment, trade and financing by its nationals. What kind of additional sanctions can the US impose?

All Russian oil and gas companies obviously do business with Europe. A lot of transaction happens through globally-recognized financial and banking institutions. So the West can in the worst-case disconnect the Russian economy from having any access to global financial and banking systems. Or they could simply identify entities and individuals and put sanctions on their travel, assets, movements, and other things.

But Putin is prepared for these steps. It has one of the largest foreign exchange reserves $630 billion. So he can even deal with sanctions. Russia is even prepared for the worst-case scenario.

What would be Europeans' role in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

Europeans are not going to listen to the United States. We have seen that the German chancellor has even dissuaded the countries from supplying weapons to Ukraine. Both the French president and German chancellor are shuttling between Kyiv and talking to Kyiv and Putin all the time. Germany has just completed the $11 billion Nordstream 2 pipeline. So they don’t want to see that investment going down. That (pipeline) is going to double Germany's gas import from Russia. Russia would need that foreign exchange to push it on. So Europe is already making it clear that it is not toeing the American line completely. In that sense, Joe Biden will have a very limited bandwidth to play on.

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Last Updated Feb 23, 2022, 5:34 PM IST