India-US arms deals: Demystifying strategic gameplan of the West

India and the United States are deepening their military partnership through a new defence cooperation agreement, co-production of military equipment and potential arms deals for fighter jet technology.

During a two-day visit to India, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Indian officials agreed on a defence ‘road map’ that could expedite India’s acquisition of high-tech weapons from the US and open up the possibility of joint production of defence equipment.

The US and India have created a new initiative called INDUS X, which aims at accelerating innovation in the defence industry between private companies in both countries. During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington later this month, it is expected that high-profile defence deals will be struck—including possible plans to co-produce fighter jet engines in India and officially launch INDUS X.

Some analysts believe that the recent agreements between the US and India are part of a broader Western effort to wean India off its reliance on Russia for military hardware and spare parts.

In 2022, Boris Johnson, then UK Prime Minister, offered India assistance in developing its own fighter jets. This week, Germany’s Defence Minister, Boris Pistorius, who was also visiting India, stated that German companies were in the running for a US$5.2-billion contract to build submarines for the South Asian nation.

With Russia, India’s all-weather friend and its largest defence supplier, preoccupied by the war in Ukraine, many in Delhi are concerned that the country’s defence needs may be jeopardized. Analysts say the US’s promise to step in could lead to a mutually beneficial defence partnership between the US and India.

The US, which is uncomfortable with India’s refusal to criticize Russia, may see an opportunity to change India’s stance. This is according to Rajan Kumar, an associate professor at the Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, who specializes in India-Russia relations.

The West believes that India’s foreign policy priorities may shift if India becomes less reliant on Russia. This is because India has refused to openly criticize Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Some experts believe that India can reduce its dependence on Russia for defence equipment and technology if the US and other Western countries are willing to share more of their own military resources with India.

Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, director of Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology at the Delhi-based think tank, Observer Research Foundation, said that, for India to become less reliant on Russia for defence supplies, the West would need to make a conscious decision to share defence technologies with India. Rajagopalan also said it seemed as if the US was starting to realize the importance of reducing India’s dependence on Russia.

Delays and Disruptions

The Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank that focuses on global peace and security, has found that 85% of India’s major weapons systems come from Russia. This reliance on Russian arms has made India vulnerable to potential sanctions from the US and other countries. In recent years, India has begun to diversify its arms procurement, but it is still heavily dependent on Russia for many key weapons systems.

According to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia was the largest supplier of arms to India between 2018 and 2022, accounting for 45% of all arms imports. France was the second-largest supplier, with 29% of imports, followed by the US with 11%.

The report also found that India’s total arms imports decreased by 11% between 2013-2017 and 2018-2022. This was due to a number of factors, including India’s increased domestic arms production and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Despite the decrease in imports, India remains the world’s largest arms importer. This is due to a number of factors, including India’s large population and its growing military power.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has disrupted defence deals between Russia and India. Two warships that were supposed to be delivered to India by Russia are now expected to be delayed by at least six months. According to news reports, two remaining air defence missile systems will be delayed. The reason for the delay is not yet known.

Analysts say the delays in the delivery of military equipment from Russia to India have been a major concern for India. The payments crisis that has emerged as a result of Western sanctions has further complicated defence trade between the two countries. The sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and its allies have made it difficult for Russia to access dollars. This has led Russia and India to discuss trading in their respective currencies, the Rouble and the Rupee. However, no agreement seems in sight.

Many in Russia were perturbed about the payments crisis, said Rajan Kumar, explaining that India’s import bill was growing rapidly and there was no clear solution in sight.

China Factor in the Equation

The increasing closeness between Moscow and Beijing has become a major concern for Delhi. They have characterized their relationship as one with “no limits”, even as Indian and Chinese troops have been facing off at the contested border in Ladakh in India for the past three years despite various efforts to settle the conflict.

Rajagoplan noted that the bonds between Russia and China have become more solid and that this carries real consequences. She continued, saying that Russia is now providing China with more advanced arms than ever before and that this could have a direct effect on India’s capacity to deal with China.

Delhi has become aware that China has become a more significant ally to Russia, the speaker stated. “Delhi has come to the realization that things have altered, that today’s Russia is completely different.”

Rajagopalan noted that, due to the circumstances, Delhi has a desirable opportunity to build up its defence ties with the US and the India-US relationship is now mainly focused on dealing with China. During Austin’s trip to India, he referred to the association between Delhi and Washington as the foundation of a free and open Indo-Pacific sphere.

Some people hold the opinion that India’s efforts to move away from Russia may not be easy and that trying to accommodate Washington’s objectives in South Asia could be a problem for New Delhi.

Prabhat Shukla, a former Indian ambassador to Russia, commented that the US faces a unique quandary with regard to India, which is that they would like to see India become strong enough militarily to be an asset in balancing out and deterring China, but not so powerful that it causes alarm in Rawalpindi, the home of the Pakistan Army’s headquarters.

According to Rajan Kumar, India’s attempts at moving away from Russian arms are a lengthy process. He explained that, since the country already has a great number of Sukhoi jets, it will take an extended period of time to make a transition to F-16s. Despite diversifying imports, the nation’s dependence on Russia is expected to remain in the coming 5-10 years.

The author is a Defence, Aerospace & Political analyst