Analysts highlight a strong bullish candle and technical breakout in Nifty and Bank Nifty. They see key support at 25,260 and resistance near 26,000.
The Indian equity markets broke out of a five-week consolidation last week, driven by easing geopolitical tensions that helped boost investor sentiment. The Nifty 50 wrapped up the June series with a powerful performance, gaining over 2% for the week and settling above 25,500, its highest weekly close in over nine months.
SEBI-registered analyst Mayank Singh Chandel noted that the index respected the broader monthly range of 24,500–25,500 and also managed a decisive breakout above trendline resistance on the weekly chart.
On the weekly candle, he highlighted the formation of a large bullish candle with minimal upper and lower wicks, signaling strong, broad-based buying and minimal intraday volatility. Chandel pegged key support for the week at 25,260 (a previous breakout zone and swing high), adding that if the index held this level, it would sustain bullish momentum.
Immediate resistance is seen at 25,800, followed by all-time high levels near 26,277. On the downside, any dip near 25,300–25,260 should be seen as a buying opportunity, he added. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly timeframe is trending higher, currently around 64, indicating healthy strength without entering overbought territory.
Last week’s rally was fueled by:
- A sharp drop in the India Volatility Index (down 9.36% weekly), suggesting cooling volatility and increasing investor confidence.
- Strong domestic flows: Even with FIIs pulling out over ₹1.10 lakh crore in 2025 so far, DII (Domestic Institutional Investors) and retail participation have more than compensated, keeping the bull run intact. Looking ahead, Chandel believes that stabilizing global cues and improving risk appetite could encourage FIIs to re-enter Indian equities, which might trigger another leg of the rally.
He concluded that the traders may continue to stay long with trailing stop-losses, and investors should remain optimistic on India's structural strength. However, he added a cautionary note that volatility may increase slightly as the new monthly expiry approaches, making prudent position sizing and risk management crucial.
Arijit Banerjee of Goodluck Capital also shared a similar view. He noted that a pole and flag breakout on the charts signaled a continuation of the uptrend, with strong bullish momentum building up.
On the derivatives front, the Open Interest (OI) data indicate that 25,000 has emerged as a strong base, with heavy put writing suggesting support and indicating that the bulls are defending this level aggressively. The 25,500 level served as an immediate support, acting as a secondary cushion where notable put buildup is evident, and short-term buyers are closely monitoring this zone.
The 26,000 level stands out as an immediate resistance area, with call writers actively positioning themselves here. A breakout above 26,000 could trigger a fresh upward move in the market. Overall, he predicts that the index looks set to maintain a bullish tone, with a possible move toward 26,000 in the coming sessions.
The banking sector remains a key driver of the market's recent strength, with Bank Nifty continuing to lead the rally. Key triggers for this notable rally include banks reducing fixed deposit rates and the Reserve Bank of India's recent reduction in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), which has improved liquidity.
He highlighted that the Bank Nifty has confirmed a breakout from a pole and flag formation, which aligns with the broader bullish setup seen in the Nifty.
OI data shows strong support at 56,000, where significant put writing reflects bullish conviction. The 57,000 level is acting as immediate support, with fresh positions being built and dip-buyers likely to step in at this zone.
On the upside, 58,000 is emerging as a key level of resistance, with call writers actively defending this point. A breakout above 58,000 could signal further upside potential.
He concluded that as long as Bank Nifty holds above 57,000, the bullish momentum is expected to continue, with the index likely to test 58,000 in the near term.
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