synopsis

Optimists think a bad earnings report is already priced in and hope CEO Elon Musk will soon announce his exit from Trump’s administration.

Tesla, Inc.'s retail following on Stocktwits remains hopeful of a turnaround for the troubled electric vehicle maker despite rising short interest and bearish analyst calls on U.S. tariff challenges and brand-related issues created by CEO Elon Musk.

An ongoing poll asking which direction the stock's next 20% move will take shows that 57% of over 2,200 respondents believe it's headed higher, while 43% expect further downside.

TSLA poll and sentiment meter as of April 13. | source: Stocktwits

"Elon killed the bears 90% of the time," said one bullish user, echoing some analysts who have pointed to Musk steering the company out of tricky situations, including the cusp of bankruptcy.

Another watcher said a bad first-quarter report has already been priced in, adding that the stock "will fly" if Musk makes positive announcements about "when he will leave Washington, robotaxi, and the Model 2 production schedule."

However, a CNBC report last week pointed out that Tesla's short interest stood at around 80.5 million shares, with a 2.8% float as of Thursday, according to S3 Partners data.

It's reportedly one of the top four equity shorts in notional value, at $17.9 billion.

Data from MarketBeat shows that the number has risen to 3.19% as of late Friday.

Meanwhile, RBC Capital cut its price target on Tesla to $314 from $320 but maintained an 'Outperform' rating ahead of Q1 earnings, which are due next week.

The firm said automakers may have seen a March sales boost due to pre-buying before new tariffs. 

While RBC doesn't expect much commentary on tariffs during earnings calls, it noted that guidance could be reduced across the sector, even though expectations are already low. 

Earlier this month, Tesla reported Q1 deliveries well below Wall Street estimates, prompting several analysts to dial back on full-year estimates and price targets.

Some analysts, however, remain optimistic about the company's expected robotaxi rollout in June and the possible launch of a cheaper model this year.

Still, according to Koyfin data, Tesla now trades at a 24% discount to analysts' average price target. 

MarketWatch noted that the stock's 50-day moving average is set to cross below the 200-day when markets open Monday — a bearish technical pattern known as the "death cross."

Tesla shares are down more than 35% year-to-date, making it the worst performer among the 'Magnificent 7' tech stocks.

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