Analysts warn of technical resistance at ₹12,700 and advise caution in the short term.

UltraTech Cement delivered impressive growth across segments in its June quarter earnings, but its technicals are flashing warning signs, according to Rajneesh Sharma, a SEBI-registered analyst. 

He noted that while UltraTech Cement’s Q1 performance validates its leadership and execution capability, the lack of volume confirmation at ₹12,700 warrants caution. The medium- to long-term remains structurally strong, but traders may want to wait for a clean breakout or confirmation of a retest. 

Ultratech shares were 2% lower at the time of writing on Tuesday. 

The cement major posted 13% year-on-year (Yoy) rise in consolidated revenues to ₹21,040 crore, while profits rose 49% to ₹2,226 crore, reflecting margin recovery and operating leverage. EBITDA increased by 44% to ₹4,591 crore, accompanied by margin improvement. 

What Worked For Ultratech?

It reported a 9.7% volume growth, led by strong domestic and overseas performance. Premium products formed 33.8% of total volume (up 41% YoY). Its focus on renewable energy as well as improvement in operational efficiency, aided sentiment. 

On the other hand, cement exports fell 28% YoY. The company saw muted infra demand, especially in North and Central India, due to unseasonal rains and project completions. 

The management remains confident of a 7–8% cement demand growth in FY26, driven by the monsoon and infrastructure development. Its capex momentum continues with ₹14,000 crore worth of expansion projects planned over FY26–27. This includes the integration of India Cements and the acquisition of Wonder WallCare, which are expected to boost margins and diversify product offerings.

Technical Trends

On its weekly chart, Ultratech has seen a breakout from a rectangle consolidation; however, its Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a bearish divergence. Additionally, weak volumes on breakout raise sustainability concerns, Sharma added. 

He identified ₹12,700 as a strong resistance, a level that has been tested thrice earlier. Watch for ₹12,200–₹12,300, which was a recent breakout retest zone. Sharma pegged support at ₹11,500. In the short term, he remains cautiously neutral due to the risk of pullback. But in the medium term, he is bullish if the breakout above ₹12,200 remains valid. And over the long term, if the trend remains intact above ₹10,960.

With promoter holding around 59% and a stable profit margin (9–10%), analyst Deepak Pal believes UltraTech remains a fundamentally strong stock. While it trades at a premium valuation (P/E ratio of 42x), its leadership position, efficient operations, and healthy balance sheet make it a preferred long-term investment, despite challenges such as rising input costs and regional competition. 

Pal noted that the stock has shown strong price action on the daily chart, continuing its bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows. It is trading above its short-term and medium-term moving averages, supported by bullish Parabolic SAR signals. 

He expects the strong quarterly performance to support the ongoing rally. Pal identified strong support at ₹12,350–₹12,450, sees it rising towards ₹12,800–₹13,000 levels in the short term. Any dip toward support can be seen as a buy-on-dip opportunity, with a stop-loss below ₹12,200.

Financial Independence notes that it reported a strong quarter driven by volume growth, pricing strength, and cost optimization. While its margin expansion and per-ton efficiency underline execution strength, the focus now shifts to capacity utilization and sustaining pricing in a rising input cost environment.

Ultratech shares have risen 8% year-to-date (YTD).

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