Super Micro vs. Palantir: Contrasting Tales of 2 AI Retail Darlings

In 2024, the artificial intelligence (AI) frenzy drove stock performances of companies with even the slightest exposure to the technology. Two AI-levered stocks that caught the attention of retail investors are Super Micro Computer, Inc. ($SMCI) and Palantir Technologies, Inc. ($PLTR).

As of Dec. 26, Palantir had over 250,000 watchers on the Stocktwits platform compared to Super Micro’s 55,000+. The 365-day percentage increases in watcher count for these stocks are 18% and 696%, respectively.

Message volumes for Super Micro spiked 2,060% over the past year as the company remained in the news due to adverse developments. The number for Palantir was a more modest 326%.

Tale Of 2 Stocks

The two stocks traced different trajectories this year. After a forgettable first half, the stock began to take off only in August. The rally’s momentum accelerated following the Nov. 5 election. 

The upside in Palantir is a function of gradually improving fundamentals and the promise that President-elect Donald Trump’s victory holds for the furthering of AI momentum.

Recently a FT report said Palantir and privately held Anduril are leading an industry coalition to jointly bid for Pentagon contracts, taking on the might of the “prime contractor” oligopoly. 

On the contrary, Super Micro stock started the year with a flourish and peaked in early March. Besieged by allegations of accounting regularities, auditor resignation, a short report, delays in the filing of financial reports and the resultant delisting overhang, the stock gave back much of the gains over the course of the year.

The company was recently booted out the Nasdaq 100 Index. 

For the year, Palantir is up a mouth-watering 378%, giving it the credentials of the best S&P 500 performer, while Super Micro is up a more modest 19%.

To exemplify the volatility in these stocks, Palantir has traded in a $15.66-$84.80 range and Super Micro stock between $17.25 and $122.90.

Chart Courtesy of Y Charts

Denver, Colorado-based Palantir is an AI-powered data analytics company providing software that empowers organizations to integrate data, decisions and operations effectively. The company was co-founded by Peter Thiel, Stephen Cohen, Joe Lonsdale and Alex Karp in 2023. It went public through a direct listing in Sept. 2020.

Super Micro, based out of San Jose, California, is a manufacturer of AI servers used for 5G/edge, data center, cloud enterprise, big data, high-performance computing and embedded markets. 

Sell Side Take

Palantir’s strong gains have left analysts wary. The average analysts’ price target for Palantir stock is $44.85 compared to $38.57 for Super Micro, according to TipRanks data. Palantir stock presents scope for over 45% downside potential, while Super Micro offers over 14% upside potential.

Super Micro has an imminent risk event as it has to file its annual report for fiscal year 2024 and quarterly report for the first quarter of 2025 by Feb. 25. If the company meets the deadline, the stock could stay listed on the Nasdaq, but failure to do so may take it off the exchange, triggering further weakness. 

Retail Mood

Sentiment toward both stocks remains stuck in the ‘neutral’ range. Message volume was slightly better for Palantir at ‘neutral’ versus ‘low’ for Super Micro. 

PLTR sentiment and message volume December 27, 2024, as of 12:24 am ET | Source: Stocktwits SMCI sentiment and message volume December 27, 2024, as of 12:24 am ET | Source: Stocktwits

A Palantir watcher on Stocktwits conceded that a dip will likely materialize but recommended loading up the stock on any weakness.

One retail watcher on the Stocktwits platform premised his bullishness toward Super Micro stock on institutional ownership. 

Another watcher expected a drop in the stock to the $16-$24 levels. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<