synopsis

Reliance Industries is set to post March quarter earnings today. Analyst flags crucial support levels near ₹1,235, even as retail sentiment turns cautious ahead of results.

Investors will watch Reliance Industries (RIL) closely on Friday as the company prepares to declare its March quarter earnings after the market closes. The stock is down nearly 1% in afternoon trade amid a broader downturn in Indian equities. 

Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate is likely to post a mixed quarter. According to a Moneycontrol survey of eight analysts, RIL is expected to report Q4 revenue of ₹2.38 lakh crore, marginally higher than the ₹2.37 lakh crore recorded in the same quarter last year. 

EBITDA is projected at ₹43,491.6 crores, up from ₹42,516 crores year-on-year, while net profit is estimated at ₹18,820 crores, slightly below the previous year's ₹18,951 crores. 

Analysts have flagged several pressure points for this quarter, including a 28% quarter-on-quarter increase in ethane prices, which has raised feedstock costs, flat-to-lower petrochemical prices, and weak oil cracks that are likely to impact refining margins. 

On the positive side, continued imports of discounted crude — 34% from Russia, 18% from Iraq, and 6% from Venezuela — are expected to help cushion the impact on gross refining margins. 

Bloomberg reports that the stock is entering the earnings season with the highest 'buy' ratings since 2008.

However, data on Stocktwits India shows that retail sentiment has turned 'bearish' from 'bullish' a week ago amidst 'high' message volumes. 

RIL sentiment and message volume on April 25 as of 12:30 pm IST. | source: Stocktwits

SEBI-registered analyst Rohit Mehta has identified several key technical levels for Reliance Industries ahead of the company's Q4 FY25 results. 

With the current market price around ₹1,300, he highlights the all-time high resistance at ₹1,603. On the downside, the first major support zone is seen between ₹1,235 and ₹1,251, which could act as a cushion if the stock faces selling pressure. 

Should the stock break below this range, the next support area is identified between ₹990 and ₹1,015, providing a deeper safety net for long-term investors. 

RIL stock has gained 7% year-to-date (YTD)

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