OPEC Revises Oil Demand Growth Forecast Lower For Fifth Straight Month: Retail’s Pessimistic

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries trimmed its oil demand growth forecast for the fifth straight month according to its monthly oil market report.

OPEC revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 lower by 210,000 barrels/day (b/d) to 1.6 million b/d. The bulk of the revision was made in the third quarter of 2024, taking into account the recently received bearish data.

For 2025, oil demand growth forecast witnessed a downward revision by 90,000 b/d to 1.4 million b/d. Most of the downward revision is in the third quarter of 2025, given the downward revision of Q3 2024 and generally lower demand growth in 2025 compared to 2024, it said.

The group expects total world oil demand to reach 106.9 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 105.3 million b/d in 2025.

Following the announcement, oil prices continued to trade in the green. Brent crude futures maturing in Feb. 2025 were trading 0.96% higher at $72.88 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures maturing in January were up 1.24% at $69.44 per barrel.

The United States Oil Fund LP (USO), which tracks the daily price movements of light, sweet crude oil, was up 1.75% on Wednesday.

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits, however, continued to trend in the ‘bearish’ territory (44/100), accompanied by high message volume.

USO’s Sentiment Meter and Message Volume as of 10:15 a.m. ET on Dec. 11, 2024 | Source: Stocktwits

The downward revision to oil demand comes after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, announced last week its member countries will extend their additional voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, announced in November 2023, until the end of March 2025.

OPEC+ had said the 2.2 million barrels per day adjustments will be gradually phased out on a monthly basis until the end of Sept. 2026 to support market stability. The monthly increase can be paused or reversed subject to market conditions, it added.

Despite the ongoing wars in the middle-east as well as Ukraine, oil prices have remained subdued for a greater part of the year. The USO stock is up over 10% on a year-to-date basis.

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