Novo Nordisk Stock Tumbles As Ozempic Faces US Pricing Scrutiny, Semaglutide Trial Underwhelms: Retail Gets Anxious
Though negotiated prices won't take effect until 2027, the inclusion of semaglutide has raised concerns about Novo's revenue and potential ripple effects on Eli Lilly's rival drugs.
FollowNovo Nordisk A/S shares fell over 4% premarket Friday, heading for lows last seen in early August, amid concerns over pricing pressures and competition for its blockbuster semaglutide drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy.
The U.S. government named Ozempic among 15 drugs selected for the second round of Medicare price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act.
According to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), these 15 drugs accounted for $41 billion in gross prescription costs under Medicare Part D from November 2023 to October 2024.
Research cited by The Wall Street Journal estimated semaglutide contributed approximately $7.5 billion of that spending.
Though negotiated prices won't take effect until 2027, the inclusion of semaglutide has raised concerns about Novo's revenue and potential ripple effects on Eli Lilly's rival drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, which were not listed.
Novo's global semaglutide sales were estimated at $28 billion in 2023.
The company also announced trial results for a higher-dose semaglutide (7.2 mg), showing a 20.7% reduction in body weight compared to 17.5% with the standard 2.4 mg dose and 2.4% with placebo in 1,407 obese adults over 72 weeks.
However, these results roughly align with Lilly's Zepbound and fall short of its next-generation treatment, retatrutide, which showed up to 24% weight loss in mid-stage trials.
Novo's stock has also faced pressure following disappointing data on its experimental obesity drug, CagriSema.
NVO sentiment and message volume Jan 17 premarket as of 9:20 am ET | source: Stocktwits
On Stocktwits, message volume spiked as retail traders reacted to the dual blow of pricing scrutiny and underwhelming trial results, while sentiment was 'bearish' heading into Friday's session.
Novo is also awaiting results from the STEP UP T2D trial, assessing semaglutide 7.2 mg in adults with type 2 diabetes and obesity, with data expected in the coming months.
Novo’s stock on the NYSE has lost more than 21% over the past twelve months.
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