An analyst says a directional trend may only emerge if the Nifty decisively breaches 25,100 on the upside or breaks below the key support at 24,500.
With simmering geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, analysts are bracing for a volatile week ahead on Dalal Street.
Despite briefly breaking above the 25,100 resistance last week, Nifty failed to sustain the momentum and witnessed a corrective pullback towards the 24,500 level. Market volatility ticked up, with the India Volatility Index (VIX) rising by 3% weekly, reflecting growing investor nervousness.
Arijit Banerjee of Goodluck Capital explains that geopolitical tensions weigh on global sentiment, and Indian equities are not immune to this uncertainty. However, he believes that the relative strength in the Indian markets suggests that they may continue to outperform global peers in the near term.
He expects Nifty to remain highly volatile for the upcoming week, with wide-range oscillations. A directional trend may only emerge if Nifty decisively breaches 25,100 on the upside or breaks below the key support at 24,500.
Banerjee said the options data indicates that the 25,000 level will act as a strong resistance, while 24,500 remains a crucial support zone.
Importantly, if the index opens below 24,400 at the start of the week, it could invite further selling pressure, tipping the balance in favor of the bears.
Given the global headwinds and sensitive technical setup, he advises traders to stay cautious as heightened volatility could dominate the week ahead.
SEBI-registered analyst Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services adds that the ongoing geopolitical tensions will likely persist into the coming week.
Sharma believes that if Nifty revisits the 24,500 support, it could see some buying action, but a decisive close below will trigger correction, with the market trading between the 24,500-25,100 range for the next few days.
For intraday trading, he sees the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 15-minute chart providing support at 24,720, with immediate resistance at 24,740-24,750. If the Nifty remains above this, it could test the 50-day EMA at 24,830 and move towards 24,900.
On the downside, Sharma pegs immediate support at 24,650. He advises against shorting the market unless this level is breached. If Nifty falls below this, he sees downside to 24,580-24,500-24,480. He cautions that a fall below 24,480 will signify ultimate support failure.
Meanwhile, Dipak Takodara shared essential levels to watch for trade on Monday. He sees immediate resistance between 24,750 and 24,850. If the Nifty breaks above this resistance range, it could trigger an upward move toward the next resistance zone at 25,200–25,250, the consolidation zone's upper boundary.
On the downside, Takodara sees support at the lower boundary of the consolidation zone of 24,450–24,500. Should Nifty fall below this, it can test support at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 24,250–24,300.
And Suryansh Singh Chandel of Orchid Research highlighted important data to watch this week. On the domestic front, the release of the Reserve Bank of India’s meeting minutes and the wholesale price inflation data will provide fresh cues.
All eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision later this week, along with commentary from the G7 Summit. They advise traders to remain cautious, refrain from aggressive trading strategies, and avoid positional trades.
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