synopsis

The stock fell over 7% on Thursday after reports that federal health officials under the Trump administration are re-evaluating Moderna's $590 million contract for bird flu vaccine development.

Shares of Moderna Inc. (MRNA) are on track for a more than 12% weekly decline, with sentiment among retail traders turning cautious amid concerns over declining revenue and regulatory uncertainty.

The stock fell over 7% on Thursday, hitting two-week lows, following media reports that federal health officials under the Trump administration are re-evaluating Moderna's $590 million contract for bird flu vaccine development. 

The contract, awarded in January under the Biden administration, is now reportedly under scrutiny by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits, where Moderna has nearly 110,000 followers, slipped to 'neutral' from 'bullish' over the past week. 

Some traders pointed to the stock's pattern of lower highs since November as a sign of further downside. 

Others speculated that new HHS chief Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a known vaccine skeptic, could pause the development of new COVID vaccines, potentially impacting Moderna's revenue.

Courtney Garcia, senior wealth advisor at Payne Capital Management, told CNBC she sees further downside for Moderna in the near term and considers it a 'sell.' 

She highlighted that the company remains heavily reliant on COVID-19 vaccine sales, with its broader mRNA pipeline yet to turn profitable.

"There could be long-term opportunity with other uses of mRNA, but in the meantime, I'd stay on the sidelines," Garcia reportedly said. “It’s way too concentrated in COVID vaccines, which I don’t think have huge short-term potential.”

Earlier this month, Moderna reported a wider-than-expected quarterly loss and issued a 2025 revenue forecast with a midpoint below analyst estimates.

However, CEO Stéphane Bancel reassured investors, outlining plans to secure up to 10 product approvals by 2027 and remove nearly $1 billion in costs by the end of 2025.

A recent Stocktwits poll indicated that many traders believe Kennedy Jr.'s confirmation as HHS chief could significantly impact Moderna's stock.

Moderna shares are down over 26% year-to-date, with short interest at 10.6%, according to Koyfin data.

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