Luminar Stock Pops After Test Video Claims Lidar Tech Outshines Tesla's Autopilot — Retail Can't Hide Excitement

Shares of Luminar Technologies Inc. soared over 27% on Monday and climbed further in after-hours trading after a test video showed the company's self-driving technology to be allegedly better than the one developed by EV giant Tesla, Inc.

Former NASA scientist Mark Rober conducted six tests comparing Luminar's lidar technology to Tesla's Autopilot, evaluating their ability to detect obstacles under various conditions, such as fog, rain, and reflective surfaces. 

The video, which has garnered over 12 million views on YouTube, showed Luminar's lidar — which uses laser pulses to create a 3D map — outperforming Tesla's camera-based approach in three scenarios.

Retail investors on Stocktwits cheered as the stock notched its best day in over two months. Sentiment turned 'extremely bullish' from 'neutral' a day ago, and message volume soared by over 2,140%.

LAZR sentiment and message volume as of March 17. | source: Stocktwits

One optimistic user believes the stock will nearly triple to $18 by the end of this week.

Another posted: "If you are short calls, you got one last chance... this is over $7 by [market] open."

Skeptics, however, were quick to point out that Rober's methodology was flawed as some reports noted he used an "unnamed" version of Tesla's "older freeway drive-assist tool" rather than the new and improved full self-driving (FSD).

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has long dismissed lidar as unnecessary, calling it a "crutch" for autonomous driving. In Tesla's last earnings call in January, he said, "Obviously, humans drive without shooting lasers out of their eyes."

Earlier this month, Luminar said Volvo would use its technology in the new ES90 model, giving investors something to cheer about.

However, BofA Securities analysts have cautioned that auto suppliers face another challenging year as declining production volumes weigh on the industry's outlook.

According to Koyfin data, Luminar stock has a high short interest of 22.9% and has lost more than 76% of its value over the past 12 months.

Out of the six analysts covering it on Wall Street, one rates it a 'strong buy,' while the others recommend a 'hold' or 'strong sell.'

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