Analysts expect markets to stay volatile unless a decisive breakout occurs. Tata Motors fell sharply on lower JLR margin guidance, while Bajaj Finance gained post-split and bonus.

Indian markets began the week cautiously, tracking mixed global cues. Investors continue to monitor the escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel. 

At 9:50 a.m. IST, the Nifty 50 traded flat at 24,716, while the Sensex was up 27 points to 81,145. 

Broader markets underperform, with the Nifty Midcap index falling 0.5% and the Nifty Smallcap index down nearly 1%. 

Analysts expect markets to stay volatile as global tensions rise unless a decisive breakout occurs. 

The retail sentiment on Stocktwits for Nifty remained ‘bearish.’

Nifty sentiment and message volume on June 16 as of 9:50 am IST. | source: Stocktwits

Sectorally, most indices traded under pressure, with PSU banks, metals, and auto stocks leading the decline. On the other hand, IT and oil and gas indices traded with marginal gains.

Tata Motors is the top Nifty loser, down 5% after it announced revised fiscal 2026 earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margin expectations of 5-7% for its British luxury carmaker, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR). This is lower than its initial 10% target. 

Bajaj Finance shares opened 2% higher as the stock begins trading ex-split and ex-bonus today. 

Oil marketing companies like IOC traded 0.5% lower, while Oil India gained 1%, and shipping companies like SCI rose 3% amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Belrise Industries rose 3%, driven by steady earnings performance in its fourth quarter. 

Hyundai Motor shares gained nearly 1% as UBS initiated a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹2,350, indicating a 22% upside. 

From a technical standpoint, SEBI-registered analysts on Stocktwits shared the trade setup. 

Ashish Kyal noted that the Nifty has reversed from lower Bollinger Bands, with support at 24,460-24,490 being tested multiple times. He cautions that if this support is retested on Monday, it will likely break.

On the upside, a move above 24,728, followed by 24,754, could pave the way to 24,900 levels. Kyal emphasizes that Monday's opening-hour trade will be crucial in deciding the trend for the coming weeks.

Prabhat Mittal pegged immediate support for the Nifty at 24,580 and resistance at 25,120, while he placed Bank Nifty support at 55,200 and resistance at 56,300.

A&Y Market Research expects markets to remain rangebound until clarity emerges on the geopolitical front. They advise traders to avoid aggressive bets, focus on defensives, and select quality names and premium plays. 

They peg Nifty resistance between 24,746 and 24,811 and support at 24,490-24,461.

For the Bank Nifty, they see intraday resistance at 55,930-56,050 and support between 55,443-55,557.

Globally, Asian markets traded mixed, while crude oil prices edged higher on Monday as renewed strikes by Israel and Iran over the weekend stoked supply concerns. 

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