Crude and equity markets have demonstrated resilience despite the Iran-Israel conflict, with the data pointing to strength rather than panic, according to the analyst.

Despite global geopolitical conflicts, equity markets continue to be shaped by data and not drama, said SEBI-registered analyst Rajneesh Sharma. He believes that the Nifty has more room to rally in the second half of this year. 

The last few days were marked by escalating tension in the Iran-Israel conflict after U.S. airstrikes targeted key Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, followed by Iran’s retaliatory missile launch on Monday. 

The U.S President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel on June 24, while neither nation has officially accepted it, Iran has signaled its readiness to halt strikes on Israel if Israel agrees to reciprocate.

Sharma observed that despite these geopolitical tensions, global markets remained largely upbeat.

The crude oil movement supports this analysis. While oil prices initially spiked, they faced rejection at the long-term resistance level of $77.38 and retreated. A real supply crisis would have triggered a breakout, he noted. At the time of writing, Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $66.587 per barrel.

Meanwhile, Israel’s stock market (TA-35) index hit a new all-time high during the peak of the conflict before a technical correction on Monday. Sharma added that a full-scale war would have triggered a broader sell-off.

Speaking about the U.S. bond market, with over $6 trillion in debt maturing in the second half of 2025, the US Treasury faces refinancing. Historically, geopolitical tensions have supported safe-haven assets, such as U.S. Treasuries, and increased bond demand when refinancing volumes are high. While not conclusive, the timing of the uncertainty may have aligned with a structural need for bond market stability, he added.

In India, net institutional inflow stood at ₹3,718 crore on June 23, supported by strong buying from domestic institutional investors (DII). DIIs poured in ₹5,592 crores while foreign institutional investors withdrew ₹1,874 crores.

The benchmark Nifty index reclaimed its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on the weekly chart. Average Directional Index (ADX) remains low, indicating a possible pre-breakout setup, Sharma observed.

If the Nifty closes positively for the week ending June 27, he expects the rally to continue into the second half of 2025.

The Nifty was up over 1% at 25,226.95. Year-to-date, it has gained 6.6%.

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