Apple Not ‘Out Of The Woods Yet’ Says Analyst Who Warns Of Rising Costs From Trump’s Trade War

synopsis

Apple (AAPL) stock is down over 3.5% in afternoon trading on Monday, aligning with broader market weakness amid ongoing tariff uncertainty and President Trump’s attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. However, Moffett Nathanson believes the markets are unlikely to recover anytime soon.

The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, fell as much as 3%, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) tumbled 2.6%. 

Moffett pointed to rising macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds, particularly from President Donald Trump’s tariff policy and ongoing trade tensions with China. 

“Apple is caught in the middle of the trade war,” Moffett said in a client note cited by CNBC. “Whether it’s paying steep tariffs or rebuilding its supply chain at high cost, the outcome is the same: rising expenses.”

Despite a 23% drop in 2025, the brokerage said the company is “still a long way from out of the woods.”

Moffett reiterated its ‘Sell’ rating and cut its price target to $141 from $184, implying 25% downside from current levels.

That revised target stands well below the Wall Street average of $237, according to Koyin data.

Although some smartphone-related tariffs were paused on April 11, the brokerage noted Apple remains exposed to 20% tariffs on Chinese imports and a minimum of 10% tariffs on products assembled in India and Vietnam.

Moffett slightly raised its 2025 earnings estimate to $7.20 a share from $7.18, reflecting near-term demand from consumers accelerating purchases to beat tariff deadlines. However, it pointed out that the benefit is expected to be short-lived. 

Beyond trade risk, the brokerage flagged Apple’s slow progress in artificial intelligence (AI) and a stalled iPhone upgrade cycle. 

It also cited regulatory uncertainty around Google search royalties, which account for over 25% of Apple’s operating income. A federal court recently ruled the payments illegal, and the Trump administration has not signaled support for preserving them.

Despite recent market volatility, Apple’s stock has increased by 15% over the past 12 months. 

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