synopsis

The analyst said Apple may have to establish more non-China iPhone production lines to meet demand in markets beyond the U.S. as tariffs threaten a global trade war

Apple, Inc. (AAPL) stock fared relatively better than the broader market on Monday, but an analyst warned of substantial risk ahead for the iPhone maker.

In a post on X, Taiwan-based analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said on Monday that Apple's tariff risks have escalated with China's warning of reciprocal tariffs on countries negotiating with the U.S.

The analyst said the latest geopolitical development has further clouded Apple's outlook.

According to Kuo, if the U.S. forces other countries to raise tariffs on Chinese goods, potential risks for Apple will rise sharply. Such a development will necessitate Apple establishing more non-China iPhone production lines to meet demand in markets beyond the U.S., he added.

The analyst said this would render Apple's tariff risks "immeasurably and entirely uncontrollable."

In a separate development, DigiTimes reported that Apple supplier Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM) was planning a 30% price rise for its 4-nanometer (nm) chips produced in its Arizona plants, according to TheFly.

The planned move has been been forced due to surging orders from U.S.-based customers.

More details regarding the tariff impact could be forthcoming when Apple reports its second-quarter results on May 1. The Finchat-compiled consensus estimates point to quarterly earnings per share (EPS) of $1.61 and revenue of $93.97 billion, compared to the year-ago's $1.53 and $90.75 billion, respectively.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward Apple stock turned to 'bearish' (44/100) late Monday from the 'neutral' mood a day ago, with the message volume dropping to 'low' levels.

AAPL sentiment and message volume as of 2:17 a.m. ET, April 22 | source: Stocktwits

One watcher blamed the company for its supply chain concentration in China.

Another user positioned for more weakness as they feared a margin dent from the tariff war.

Apple stock ended Monday's session down 1.94% at $193.16, losing 23% this year.

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