American Airlines Stock Set For Worst Day Since May 2024 After Weaker-Than-Expected Q1 Outlook: Retail Sentiment Sours
The company expects its first-quarter 2025 adjusted loss per diluted share to be between $0.20 and $0.40, which is wider than Wall Street’s estimated loss of $0.04.
FollowShares of American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) plummeted over 7% in Thursday’s pre-market session after the company’s first-quarter 2025 outlook disappointed Wall Street.
If the pre-market losses are sustained, Thursday would be the worst session for the stock since May 2024.
American Airlines expects first-quarter (Q1) 2025 adjusted loss per diluted share to be between $0.20 to $0.40—bigger than Wall Street’s estimated loss of $0.04.
The company expects its full-year 2025 adjusted earnings per diluted share to be between $1.70 to $2.70.
The outlook might be disappointing, but the fourth-quarter earnings report topped Wall Street estimates. For the fourth quarter of 2025, AAL reported a 4.6% year-over-year (YoY) rise in its revenues to $13.66 billion, a record figure. Wall Street estimated revenue to come in at $13.42 billion.
AAL said the revenue performance was driven by the airline’s actions to adjust capacity, combined with continued demand strength. Total unit revenue rose 2.0% versus 2023.
The company reported EPS of $0.86 compared to an estimate of $0.65, according to KoyFin data. Net income jumped to $590 million versus $19 million in the same quarter a year ago.
CEO Robert Isom highlighted that the airline achieved several important objectives in 2024.
“As we look ahead to this year, American remains well-positioned because of the strength of our network, loyalty and co-branded credit card programs, fleet and operational reliability, and the tremendous work of our team.”
In Q4, the airline achieved its total debt reduction goal of $15 billion from peak levels in mid-2021 — a full year ahead of schedule. The company ended the year with $10.3 billion of total available liquidity, comprised of cash and short-term investments plus undrawn capacity under revolving credit and other facilities.
Following the release of the earnings report, retail sentiment on Stocktwits dipped into the ‘bearish’ territory (28/100) from ‘bullish’ a day ago, accompanied by ‘extremely high’ message volume.
AAL’s Sentiment Meter and Message Volume as of 7:51 a.m. ET on Jan. 23, 2025 | Source: Stocktwits
Interestingly, one user believes the estimates projected by the management might be conservative, given that fuel prices are expected to decline this year.
Other user chats reflected a mixed take on the stock.
Before considering Thursday’s pre-market decline, American Airlines stock has gained over 9% year-to-date and has risen over 33% over the past year.
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