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A new global climate report warns that the world’s carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C could run out in just over three years. Human-caused emissions remain dangerously high, pushing temperatures and sea levels upward.
A new global climate study warns that the world is fast running out of time to stay within the 1.5°C warming target set by the Paris Agreement. Scientists estimate that the world has only 130 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide left to emit to have a good chance of staying below 1.5°C.
At the current rate of emissions, this remaining carbon budget could be gone in just over three years.
The study, called Indicators of Global Climate Change, was published in the journal Earth System Science Data and included research from over 60 scientists across the world.
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Current emissions are too high
Between 2015 and 2024, the world released an average of 53 billion tonnes of CO2 per year. These emissions mostly come from burning fossil fuels and deforestation. In 2024, even emissions from international aviation returned to pre-COVID levels.
As a result, global warming is speeding up. The planet’s average surface temperature in 2024 was estimated to be 1.52°C higher than pre-industrial times. Of that, 1.36°C is caused by human activities.
This shows that almost all of the recent warming is due to humans.
High temperatures are becoming the new normal
While a single year of 1.5°C warming does not mean the Paris Agreement is broken, it shows how fast we are moving in the wrong direction.
Prof. Piers Forster from the University of Leeds, who led the study, said, "Continued record-high emissions of greenhouse gases mean more of us are experiencing unsafe levels of climate impacts."
The report also finds that 2023 and 2024 were exceptionally warm years, pushing the global average up. Temperatures have risen year-on-year since the last IPCC report in 2021.
Climate change is speeding up
The study finds that human-caused warming between 2015-2024 has increased at about 0.27°C per decade. This is much faster than warming rates in the 1970s or 1980s.
The Earth's energy imbalance is also growing. This means the planet is trapping more heat than it loses, which leads to warming of oceans, land, and air.
Dr. Karina Von Schuckmann from Mercator Ocean International said, "The ocean is storing about 91% of the extra heat. This causes warmer waters, rising sea levels, and extreme weather."
Sea level rise is getting faster
Between 2019 and 2024, the global sea level rose by 26 mm, which is more than twice the long-term rate of 1.8 mm per year seen since 1900. Since 1900, sea level has gone up by around 228 mm.
This increase, while it may seem small, has a big impact on low-lying areas. It makes storms more damaging and causes more coastal erosion.
Dr. Aimée Slangen from the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research said:
“Sea-level rise is slow, but we have already locked in further increases for the coming decades.”
🔹 More indicators added this year
This year’s report used 10 indicators to track climate change, including two new ones: sea level rise and global land precipitation. The full list of indicators includes:
Greenhouse gas emissions
GHG concentrations and short-lived climate forcers
Effective radiative forcing
Earth energy imbalance
Global surface temperature change
Human-induced temperature change
Remaining carbon budget
Maximum land temperatures
Global land precipitation
Sea level rise
These indicators provide a clear, updated picture of the climate system for decision-makers.
🔹 What needs to happen now
Experts say the only way to stop the worsening effects of climate change is to bring emissions to net zero. This means stopping CO2 from fossil fuels and deforestation and tackling other gases like methane.
While reducing sulphur dioxide has improved air quality, it has also reduced the planet’s cooling effect, making GHG reductions even more urgent.
Prof. Joeri Rogelj from Imperial College London said:
“The window to stay within 1.5°C is rapidly closing… Every small increase in warming matters.”
🔹 Final message: Act fast
This report sends a clear warning. The world is heating up faster than ever before. Every year of delay brings us closer to dangerous levels of climate change. Urgent action is needed now to protect the planet, its people, and future generations.