Will you live to the age of 100? Scientists warn human longevity may be approaching its limits
While many dream of reaching the remarkable age of 100, the reality remains far from that wish, as recent research reveals. Experts warn that despite previous advancements, the once-surging life expectancy rates are now facing a noticeable slowdown.
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FollowWhile many dream of reaching the remarkable age of 100, the reality remains far from that wish, as recent research reveals. Experts warn that despite previous advancements, the once-surging life expectancy rates are now facing a noticeable slowdown.
A team of researchers has uncovered that, despite substantial strides in medicine throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, we are now nearing the upper boundaries of human longevity. Predictions made in the 1990s optimistically forecasted that a majority of children born today would easily reach their centennial year. However, the latest analysis paints a far more sobering picture.
New data reveals that children born in recent years stand only a 5.3% chance of living to 100 if female, and an even lower 1.8% if male. This startling revelation comes from a global study conducted by researchers at the University of Illinois at Chicago, who meticulously examined mortality data from various regions, including Hong Kong, Australia, France, and Spain.
The team highlighted that global life expectancy skyrocketed from 48 in 1900 to 67 by 1950 and further to 76 by the year 2000. Yet, by 2021, this figure had crept up by just one more year, reaching only 77. Had the trend of ‘radical life extension’ continued, current life expectancy would have been projected to sit around 83 years.
In the UK, the rise in life expectancy has been staggering since 1841, when men could expect to live only to 40.2 years and women to 42.3. By 1950, life expectancy had surged to 66.1 years for men and 70.6 years for women, and by 2000, those numbers further climbed to 75.6 for men and 80.4 for women. However, the growth has recently decelerated, with children born in 2022 expected to live to just 78.9 if male and 82.8 if female.
Hong Kong, however, remains a global outlier. Children born there in 2019 have the highest chances of reaching their centenary, with 12.8% of women and 4.4% of men projected to celebrate their 100th birthdays.
The researchers emphasize that while life expectancy may have hit a ceiling, extending the number of years lived in good health should become the new focus. "Most people alive today at older ages are living on time that was manufactured by medicine," said Professor Stuart Olshansky, the lead author of the study. “But these medical Band-Aids are producing fewer years of life, even though they're occurring at an accelerated pace, implying that the period of rapid increases in life expectancy is now documented to be over. We should now shift our focus to efforts that slow aging and extend healthspan."
The concept of "healthspan" — measuring the number of healthy years lived rather than mere survival — is becoming increasingly important in longevity research.
Professor Olshansky's previous research, published in 1990, argued that humanity was approaching a life expectancy ceiling of around 85 years, suggesting that the most significant gains had already been realized. “Our result overturns the conventional wisdom that the natural longevity endowment for our species is somewhere on the horizon ahead of us — a life expectancy beyond where we are today,” he added.
The study’s groundbreaking findings were published in Nature Aging.
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