Rajasthan Election 2023: Exit Polls suggest advantage BJP; setback for Congress
Rajasthan Election Exit Poll 2023: The voting for 199 out of 200 constituencies in Rajasthan took place on November 25, 2023, in a single phase. However, the Election Commission of India has delayed the polls for the remaining seat.
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FollowThe recent exit polls have revealed that about 96 seats for Congress and 90 for the BJP out of 199 seats in Rajasthan. To form the government in the 200-member House of Rajasthan, a party requires at least 101 seats. These numbers might come as a surprise to the BJP, which had anticipated a return to power. The survey indicates that 42% of people voted for the Congress, while 41% voted for the BJP.
PMARQ
BJP: 105 -125
INC: 69 - 81
Others 5 - 15
Jan Ki Baat
BJP 100-122
Congress 62-85
Others 14-15
CNN-News 18
Congress 111
BJP 74
Others 14
Axis My India
BJP: 90
Congress: 96
Others: 13
Times Now ETG
BJP: 108 - 128
Congress: 56-72
Others: 13-21
Recalling turnout and polling dynamics:
The Rajasthan assembly elections witnessed a turnout of over 75%, slightly surpassing the figures from 2018. Despite overall peaceful polling, sporadic clashes occurred in some pockets. Notably, Pokaran in Jaisalmer district and Tijara in Alwar saw substantial turnouts of 81.12% and 80.85%, respectively, featuring key contests between various candidates.
Congress seeks to maintain its leadership by capitalizing on the popularity of Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot's welfare programs. Meanwhile, the BJP pins its hopes on leveraging Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity to secure victory. PM Modi's critique of the incumbent Congress government's handling of law and order issues in Rajasthan adds depth to the campaign. The elections also hold significance for Vasundhara Raje, a prominent BJP figure, who couldn't secure the BJP CM nomination despite efforts.
What is an Exit Poll?
Exit polls serve as a means for survey agencies to prognosticate election results. Post-polling, these polls gather data from voters to predict the favored candidate. Differentiating from pre-election opinion polls, exit polls aim to foresee electoral outcomes based on post-voting preferences.
How reliable are Exit Polls?
Exit polls have faced criticism for occasional inaccuracies attributed to varying voter responses, agency disparities, or misinformation from respondents. While occasionally aligning with actual election results, these polls might deviate from projected seat counts, introducing an element of unpredictability. Despite these challenges, exit polls offer insights into potential outcomes.
