Opinion | Drone attacks in Manipur: Concerns rise over advanced warfare and possible China, US involvement

Violence has surged once again in Manipur, marking a disturbing return to conflict after a four-month hiatus. On September 1, suspected extremists launched a deadly attack using “high-tech drones” in Koutruk and Kadangband villages of Imphal West district. This latest assault resulted in two fatalities and injuries to at least seven others, including police officers and a television journalist.

First drone attack and its aftermath

According to Manipur police, the attack started around 2.30 pm in the Koutruk and Kadangband villages located in Meitei-majority Imphal West district, which borders the Kuki-majority hill district of Kangpokpi. The Manipur Rifles and Indian Reserve Battalion forces responded to the violence. After sunset, some houses were also set on fire further exacerbating the crisis.

Among the casualties were Ngangbam Surbala, a 31-year-old woman, and an unidentified man from Koutruk. Surbala, who died from a gunshot wound to the head, was taken to the Regional Institute of Medical Sciences in Imphal, the state capital, for a post-mortem examination. A resident of Phayeng in the same district, she was visiting her parental home in Koutruk with her eight-year-old daughter when the attack occurred. Her daughter suffered injuries to her right hand during the incident.

Local journalist Elangbam Mushuk from Impact News was also injured by bomb fragments while covering the violence. He was among two people struck by bomb fragments, while five others were wounded by gunfire. The victims, including those who lost their lives and the injured—seven of whom are women—are from the Meitei community. All of the injured are currently receiving treatment at a hospital.

Another drone attack follows

The following day, September 2, Imphal West district experienced another drone attack, this time in Senjam Chirang. A 23-year-old woman was injured by explosives dropped from a drone. She is now in hospital with injuries to her abdomen, but in a stable condition. This second attack underscores a troubling pattern of increasingly sophisticated and violent tactics being employed by militants.

The militants also fired at the village from a nearby hill, leading to a response from the security forces. Residents of the two affected villages reported that militants used a drone to drop bombs during the attack. In a video, allegedly from the incident that was shared on social media, people were seen running for cover while a man could be heard saying, “The drone bombing has started.”

The last time there was a violent clash between the tribal Kuki-Zos and the non-tribal Meiteis, the two rival communities, was before the Lok Sabha elections in April.

Following Sunday's incident, Imphal West district magistrate Th. Kirankumar had issued an order imposing restrictions starting at 7 pm on September 1, “until further notice”, under Section 163 of the Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita.

Manipur’s Director-General of Police, Rajiv Singh, also sent out an “alert message” instructing the superintendents of police in all districts to stay on high alert, particularly in the border areas. The message emphasised that all deployed forces must be on high alert and work together to prevent any incidents. It called for joint combing operations and instructed ADGs, zonal IGs and range DIGs to closely monitor the law and order situation to avoid any potential issues.

In a statement, the Manipur police reported that 'alleged Kuki militants deployed numerous RPGs using high-tech drones'. "While drone bombs have commonly been used in general warfares, this recent deployment of drones to deploy explosives against security forces and the civilians marks a significant escalation," the police said.

How drones are used to launch grenades

Using high-tech drones to launch multiple rocket-propelled grenades involves equipping drones with specialized attachments that can carry and release these grenades. Here is how it typically works:

• Drone Equipment: The drone is fitted with a mechanism, or attachment, that can securely hold RPGs or other explosive devices. These drones are usually custom-built, or modified for military, or tactical purposes.
• Targeting: The drone operator uses a remote-control system to navigate the drone to the desired target area. Some drones may be equipped with cameras and sensors to assist in precise targeting.
• Launching: Once the drone is in position, the operator can remotely trigger the release of RPGs. Depending on the set-up, the grenades may be dropped from a height, or launched in a manner more directed toward the target.
• Explosion: The RPGs are designed to explode on impact or after a short delay, causing significant damage to the target area. The use of drones allows the grenades to be delivered with high precision, making them a dangerous tool in conflict zones.

This method marks a significant advancement in asymmetric warfare tactics. "The involvement of highly trained professionals, possibly with technical expertise and support, cannot be ruled out. Authorities are closely monitoring the situation, and the police are prepared to respond to any contingency that may arise. Police appeals to the general public to maintain restraint. Combing operations are ongoing to flush out any inimical elements," the Manipur police said in its statement.

In a statement, the state government reported that it had learnt of the attacks on unarmed villagers, allegedly carried out by Kuki militants using “drones, bombs and other advanced weapons”. The government strongly condemned this act of terrorising unarmed villagers, especially at a time when every effort is being made to restore normality and peace in the region.

The ethnic violence, which began on May 3, 2023, has so far resulted in over 220 deaths and displaced around 60,000 people. Many of those displaced are still living in relief camps.

Is there a foreign hand behind Manipur drone attack?

While the immediate perpetrators of the attack are suspected to be Kuki militants, the use of sophisticated drone technology and tactics raises questions about possible external support. The sophistication of the drone attack, utilizing RPGs in a manner not typically seen in the region, suggests the involvement of individuals or groups with advanced military training and access to cutting-edge equipment. It is not inconceivable that foreign actors with vested interests in destabilizing the region could be providing such support.

China, with its expanding influence in South Asia and ongoing border disputes with India, might see an opportunity to exploit the unrest in Manipur. Similarly, the US, while traditionally aligned with India, may be covertly backing certain groups to counter China’s growing influence.

Major General Sudhakar Jee (Retd), a Geopolitical, Defence Strategy and Security expert, posits that the complexity of the drone attacks could be linked to geopolitical maneuvers. He suggests that both China and the US might have interests in manipulating regional conflicts to maintain strategic advantages.

"The Thucydides trap conceived by Graham Allison suggest that no established ruling power can accept any rising power to come up to its level of capability. Geopolitically the same theory points directly towards possible hand of the US in the weaponised drone attacks to keep India under check from becoming a global power in near future. The same is corroborated with the fact India and China together (subject to improvement in bilateral relations) hold the potential of becoming a bigger and unprecedented threat to the existing status of the US as a superpower," he told Asianet Newsable.

"At the regional level, given the global ambition of China to rejuvenate its middle kingdom by 2049 the intersection of axis of interests between China and India will always present a conflict situation. Thereby, denying “Act East Policy” to India and CMEC (China Myanmar Economic Corridor) and access to warm water ports in the Bay of Bengal to China," Jee explained.

He further said, "At the local level, the existing historic fault-line amongst the ethnic tribes especially Kuki and Meitei is being exploited by multiple means, including the semi-autonomous platforms reportedly employed for kinetic attack against the Meitei group."

"It may also be underscored that the new dimension of warfare that is noticed in past few days is most likely to be complemented by the components of 6G warfare to include epistemic (alteration of historic fact/foundational information), cognitive threat by misinformation, dis-information and mal-information (hacking/manipulation of human mind), cyber attack (hacking of computer), as suspected to have been applied in the recent Bangladesh upheaval," he concluded.

It is essential to note that, at this stage, these are mere speculations. A thorough investigation is necessary to ascertain the true origins of the drone technology and the level of external involvement, if any. Prematurely assigning blame could further exacerbate tensions and complicate the already volatile situation in Manipur.

The focus should remain on bringing the perpetrators to justice, providing aid to the victims and restoring the peace in the region. Any suspicions and allegations of foreign involvement should be handled with the utmost caution and supported by concrete evidence.

(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com)