India's WTC final hopes boosted as NZ drops to 5th spot after ICC penalty; road to Lord's scenarios explained

New Zealand's hopes of qualifying for the World Test Championship Final were dealt a blow after the ICC imposed a three-point penalty for a slow over-rate in their match against England. This has caused them to drop in the rankings.

The penalty comes as a boost for India, who now sit at the top with 61.11 percentage points.

New Zealand currently have a points percentage of 47.92 and can only reach a maximum of 55.36 percent if they win their remaining two matches against England. South Africa (59.26), Australia (57.26), and Sri Lanka (50) occupy the second, third, and fourth positions, respectively.

"The race to feature at next year's ICC World Test Championship Final at Lord's has taken a twist with New Zealand and England sanctioned for maintaining a slow over-rate during the opening Test of their series in Christchurch," the ICC said in a statement.

"Both teams were fined 15 percent of their match fees and penalised three crucial World Test Championship competition points, adding more intrigue to the thrilling final stages of the ongoing cycle," it further stated.

Despite an impressive eight-wicket victory at Hagley Oval, England have already been eliminated from contention for next year's World Test Championship Final. The loss of competition points, however, is a significant setback for New Zealand, who have dropped from equal fourth to outright fifth in the standings.

This leaves the inaugural World Test Championship winners with a challenging path to qualify for the one-off Test at Lord's in June 2025. New Zealand will need to win both their remaining matches against England, along with favorable results in other fixtures, to keep their qualification hopes alive.

Both New Zealand and England were found to be three overs short of the target, after accounting for time allowances, with each over short resulting in a one-point penalty. Captains Tom Latham of New Zealand and Ben Stokes of England admitted guilt and accepted the sanctions, avoiding a formal hearing.

The charges were laid by on-field umpires Ahsan Raza and Rod Tucker, third umpire Adrian Holdstock, and fourth official Kim Cotton, with David Boon of the Emirates ICC Elite Panel of Match Referees imposing the penalties.

World Test Championship - State of Play ahead of 2025 final

The completion of the first Test in each of the four ongoing series has reshaped the World Test Championship 2023-25 standings.

England's victory over New Zealand in Christchurch has been overshadowed by both teams being penalised three points for a slow over-rate. As a result, the Black Caps have dropped to fifth place, significantly hurting their chances of reaching the final.

Meanwhile, emphatic wins for India and South Africa have strengthened their positions for a potential spot in next year's Lord's final. Conversely, defeats for Sri Lanka and Australia mean both teams must improve their performances to boost their point percentages in the standings.

West Indies, with a home victory over Bangladesh, have climbed out of the bottom of the WTC standings.

India's chances of making it to WTC final

After suffering a rare 3-0 series whitewash at home against New Zealand in October, which saw them drop a spot in the WTC standings, India have made a strong comeback in the race for Lord's with a dominant win in Australia.

A superb all-round performance from both the batters and bowlers in Perth has reignited India's hopes of making their third consecutive appearance in the WTC Final.

With a victory in their opening match of the five-Test tour Down Under, India now need to win three of their remaining four matches to secure qualification.

Will it be India vs South Africa in WTC 2025 finals?

Meanwhile, building on their impressive series win over Bangladesh in the subcontinent, South Africa continued their strong form with a brilliant victory over Sri Lanka in the opening Test of their home season. This win has propelled them past Australia, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka into second place in the WTC standings.

The next three matches are crucial for South Africa. If they maintain their winning momentum, they will be well-positioned to qualify for the World Test Championship final, regardless of how other teams perform.

A look at where other team's stand

Australia

Reigning World Test Championship winners Australia, who had briefly reclaimed the top spot after India's loss to New Zealand, have dropped to second place in the points table. However, Pat Cummins and his team still have the best chance to qualify for next year's final, with six Tests remaining in their current WTC cycle.

The defending champions will likely need to win at least four of their remaining six Tests to have a chance to defend the title they won in 2023.

Although Australia are currently 1-0 down in the home Border-Gavaskar series, they will also tour Sri Lanka next year for two additional Tests. This means they could still draw 2-2 with India and remain in contention for a place in the final.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka's recent Test performances have been impressive, highlighted by a stunning victory over England in the third Test and a 2-0 whitewash of New Zealand at home. With this momentum, they headed to South Africa full of confidence.

However, a heavy defeat in Durban has forced the Asian side to reassess their strategy and regroup ahead of the second Test in the series.

If Sri Lanka can secure a win in the second Test, they could still be in the running for a thrilling conclusion to the cycle, with the top two spots potentially up for grabs in their final series at home.

New Zealand

A historic series sweep in India had boosted New Zealand's hopes of claiming a second World Test Championship title, but their chances have taken a significant blow after a loss to Ben Stokes' England in the first Test in Christchurch.

New Zealand's prospects were further damaged when they were penalised three points for a slow over-rate in the match. As a result, they have dropped to fifth in the standings, previously sharing fourth place with Sri Lanka.

Even if New Zealand wins their remaining two fixtures, they will be unable to surpass the crucial 60% point percentage threshold in the World Test Championship table.

While mathematically still in the race, Tom Latham’s side requires several favorable outcomes to secure a spot at Lord’s next year.

England

While a dominant home season had raised hopes for England, consecutive losses in Pakistan have ended their chances of qualifying for next year's final.

They started their final World Test Championship outing, a three-match series against New Zealand in late November, on a positive note with an eight-wicket victory.

Pakistan

Pakistan have secured back-to-back Test victories under the guidance of new coach Jason Gillespie, but remain out of contention for a spot in the final, with six teams ahead of them in the standings.

Even if Pakistan win their remaining four Tests, they can only reach a percentage as high as 52.38%, which is unlikely to be enough to secure a place in the top two positions.

Pakistan's next challenge is a series against South Africa at the end of December, followed by two home Tests against the West Indies in January next year.

West Indies

Aside from a moment of glory against Australia in Brisbane in early 2024, the West Indies' second World Test Championship cycle has been largely forgettable.

The Caribbean side started the campaign by losing 20 of a possible 24 points in their home series against India. They then suffered a heavy defeat in the first Test in Australia, losing by 10 wickets, before securing an unlikely win at the Gabba in January.

Kraigg Brathwaite's team couldn't replicate that success in England, losing all three matches by significant margins, and later dropped 20 points in a home series against South Africa.

After starting their two-Test home series against Bangladesh with a win, the West Indies will face Pakistan away early in the new year to complete their campaign.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh's recent Test loss to the West Indies has dropped them to the bottom of the WTC points table, with only one Test remaining in their cycle.

If they win the second Test against the Windies, Bangladesh will finish with a points percentage of 31.25. However, this will not be enough to secure a spot in their first World Test Championship final.