It is reliably understood that if the Kremlin requests military assistance, Cuba is highly likely to provide support to Russia. Furthermore, the growing military cooperation between Belarus and Cuba is expected to generate uncertainty in their respective geopolitical situations. Girish Linganna reports
Cuba and Belarus have been friendly diplomatic partners for over 30 years. After Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, both countries continued their close alliance with Russia. During a visit to Moscow in November 2022, President Miguel Díaz-Canel expressed support for Putin in exchange for a delay in debt payments. Cuba has been dealing with economic difficulties for a long during which it experienced one of the highest inflation rates in Latin America.
In the coming 12 months, Cuba may start getting ready to provide military assistance to Russia if the Kremlin asks for it. Cuba's special forces soldiers will undergo training in Belarus. It is not clear whether these Cuban troops will be sent to Ukraine.
Cuba has been strengthening its military power. As of 2020, Cuba allocates around 4.2 per cent of its GDP to military expenses, and it is estimated to have about 50,000 active personnel.
During a state visit to Belarus, the Cuban defence minister visited both Moscow and Minsk from June 29 to July 1. They discussed international matters and the relationship between the two countries.
Furthermore, according to US sources, there has been a secret Chinese spy base in Cuba since 2019. This base is believed to be engaged in intercepting electronic signals from US military and commercial establishments.
More Cubans are expected to get involved in the fighting in Ukraine over the next year. Cuban volunteers have been spotted fighting alongside the Russian Army and a private military group called the Wagner Group in Ukraine. It is unclear where these Cuban fighters are now after a rebellion by a person named Prigozhin.
During a recent interview on Russia Today, President Diaz-Canel emphasized that Cuba continues to fully support Russia without any conditions.
President Putin approved a new law that allows immigrants to become Russian citizens if they join the Russian Army. Cuba and Russia plan to work together more closely in terms of military technology and cooperation. They have a number of upcoming projects in the pipeline to achieve this goal.
Both Cuba and Belarus are projected to experience economic growth in the coming year, and a significant portion of this growth is expected to be allocated towards supporting their military expansions.
During a meeting in Sochi, Russia, in June 2023, Belarusian Prime Minister Golovchenko expressed to Cuban Prime Minister Marrero Cruz that both countries should work together to withstand external pressure by strengthening their economic relations.
Last Monday, Belarus Foreign Minister Serguei Aleinik reaffirmed his country's firm support for Cuba in its struggle against the economic, commercial, and financial blockade imposed by the United States.
Cuba's iron and steel industry has shown a strong desire for the raw materials provided by Belarus. In June 2023, significant agreements were reached between the two countries regarding collaborative efforts in industrial cooperation.
Cuba's pharmaceutical industry is a major source of medicine and medical technology for Belarus. Both countries have faced challenges due to sanctions imposed by Western nations, which have affected their access to medical supplies. Cuba is also actively seeking to speed up its membership process in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
Nevertheless, the growing military cooperation between Belarus and Cuba is expected to generate uncertainty in their respective geopolitical situations.
The author is a defence and aerospace expert. Views expressed are personal.