Desperate, insecure Iran regime may 'lash out' to deflect attention

Iran expert Burzine Waghmar warns a 'desperate, insecure regime' in Iran may 'lash out' with external aggression, like bombing US bases or striking Israel, to deflect attention from mounting domestic crises and widespread public anger.

Amid rising tensions and reports that the United States military is weighing its "options" concerning the Iran conflict, Iran expert Burzine Waghmar on Tuesday (local time) said a "desperate, insecure regime" in Iran may "lash out" to deflect attention from its internal failures.

Speaking to ANI in London, Waghmar, who is associated with the Centre for Iranian Studies (CIS) at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), London University, warned that Tehran could resort to aggressive external actions as a diversion from mounting domestic crises, including widespread protests, economic collapse and deep public anger against the regime.

Internal Crises and State Brutality

"A desperate, insecure regime could lash out. The Iranian regime only knows how to kill its own people, just like the Chinese in terms of the Tiananmen Square massacres. But at least in the Chinese context, it was a robust economy and a stable state. Not so in the Iranian context," Waghmar said.

He described Iran as a strong state in terms of "sheer brutality" and the "ability to snuff out its population". "The Islamic Republic is a strong state in terms of sheer brutality and ability to snuff out its population. Otherwise, the country is reeling from one too many crises, like climate change, droughts, rationing of gas and petroleum in a country with the third-largest proven oil reserves in the world, an economy in stagflation, and a currency in freefall," he said.

Potential for External Aggression

The expert said that the regime's limited options could include provocative military actions. "All the regime knows how to do is to keep murdering its population. Out of sheer desperation, what they could do is perhaps race towards getting a nuclear bomb, or they could distract attention by bombing US bases in the region, in Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq and elsewhere, to divert attention from their problems at home," he said.

He also cautioned that Iran could target Israel again. "They could also preemptively strike Israel through missile and drone attacks as they did last year. That could be a diversionary tactic, which is well known in the Middle East," Waghmar said.

Historical Precedent

"If you recollect, Saddam Hussein did precisely that by launching Scud missiles into Israel during the Kuwait Gulf War of January 1991 in order to deflect attention and thinking that the Arabs would rally to his cause," Waghmar further added.

Faltering Regional and Domestic Support

He referred to regional dynamics and added, "If Iran thinks that the Arab Gulf States would rally to its cause, well, that's not happening because none of them have any love lost for the Tehran regime."

Waghmar further said that, unlike last year, nationalist mobilisation is unlikely to work. "This time it's not going to work. The population is too disillusioned, too disgusted, too enraged with its own leadership to rally under any such cause," he said.

Details of Domestic Repression and Protests

Waghmar also highlighted the scale of repression during ongoing protests in Iran, now entering their 17th day. He said there is a belief that "the Starlink service has been militarily jammed by the Iranian authorities at the military level with Chinese and Russian intelligence inputs because they are not able to do it on their own," though some information continues to emerge.

Citing reports accessed by international media, he said, "For example, the BBC was able to obtain information about bodies lying unclaimed in morgues, and they counted that about 180 cadavers were shot dead. Iranian paramedics have also informed that the ones who were shot dead were completely unarmed."

An Iran expert rejected official narratives portraying protesters as foreign-backed agents. "So they were not armed or weaponised as some would have us believe that these are Mossad agents or insurrectionists sent out, funded and aided to disrupt the regime," Waghmar said.

"What we can garner by the 17th day of these protests is that 10,670 people have been arrested, and the death toll at the low end can be put at about 2,000 to 2,500, though some may claim up to 5,000," he added.

Expert Endorses US Sanctions

Waghmar also welcomed US President Donald Trump's reported decision to impose 25 per cent tariffs on those trading with Iran. "President Trump's move is entirely welcome and necessary because we have reached a point that some kinetic external action is needed in order to pressurise the regime that they cannot keep murdering their unarmed citizens in cold blood," he said.

"It is not interfering in Iran's internal affairs to ask it to stop killing its citizens, to stop killing and shooting 12-year-old girls publicly in broad daylight," Waghmar added.

Official Death Toll and Internet Shutdown

Around 2,000 people have been killed in protests against Iran's regime, The Times of Israel reported, citing Reuters and quoting an Iranian official who blamed "terrorists" for the deaths of civilians and security personnel. The report said this is the highest official death toll confirmed so far in the unrest that has rocked Iran and threatened the country's stability.

Meanwhile, Iran has also imposed major restrictions on communication. Iran's top cyberspace authority announced on Monday that access to the global internet will remain restricted in the country until officials are satisfied that full security has been restored amid widespread anti-government rallies, Iranian state broadcaster Press TV reported. (ANI)

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by Asianet Newsable English staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)