Assembly Elections 2022: BJP to retain UP with reduced margin; AAP-Congress to battle in Punjab: CVoter survey
By Team Newsable | First Published Nov 13, 2021, 8:39 PM ISTUttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Goa are the states that will witness Assembly Elections in the early months of 2022.
With the Assembly elections due in five states early next year, the latest round of ABP-CVoter pre-poll survey shows Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) remains to be the favourite to win Assembly polls in states including populous Uttar Pradesh, Goa and Manipur, while Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are most likely to make massive inroads in Uttarakhand and Punjab.
Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Goa are the states that will witness Assembly Elections in the early months of 2022. Even as the survey predicts victory for the saffron party in Uttar Pradesh, it will suffer a huge loss in seat-share while the party and its allies will struggle to win even a single seat in Punjab.
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The poll was conducted with a sample size of 1,07,193 people across 690 seats with a margin of error of +/- 3% to +/- 5%. Let’s take a state-wise look at what the latest projections suggest for the forthcoming Assembly polls scheduled to be held early next year.
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Uttar Pradesh: The C-Voter results for Uttar Pradesh indicate that the BJP and its allies will manage to retain its place in the state, despite losing about 108 of its seats. In the 403-member Uttar Pradesh Assembly, the BJP and its alliance partners are projected to get 213-221 seats, over 100 down from 325 it had won in the 2017 elections, the snap poll revealed. BJP+ is also projected to garner around 40.7 per cent of votes, SP+ 31.1 per cent, BSP 15.1 per cent, and INC 8.9 per cent. The loss for the BJP, thus, seems to be a direct gain for the Samajwadi Party.
Punjab: In Punjab, Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress may involve in a neck-and-neck contest with none of the parties touching the majority mark, the CVoter projection showed. The BJP, however, is projected to win zero seats in the state. Congress is expected to accrue 46 seats, SAD 20, and AAP 51. INC is projected to garner 34.9 per cent votes, SAD 20.6 per cent, AAP 36.5 per cent, and BJP 2.2 per cent. The projected range of seats for INC is 42-50 and for AAP 47-53.
Uttarakhand: In Uttarakhand, the BJP is still leading the race with predictions hinting at 36-40 seats in the upcoming Assembly polls, with the Congress coming close but falling short of the majority mark. INC is projected to accrue 32 seats and AAP and others 0. The BJP is also projected to garner 41.4 per cent votes, INC 36.3 per cent, and AAP 11.8 per cent.
Goa: The coastal state is set to go the BJP’s way, according to the CVoter results. Ruling BJP is most likely to retain government in Goa with predictions hinting 19-23 seats in the 40-member Assembly, followed by others at 8-12 seats, AAP at 3-7 seats and Congress with only 2-6 seats. JP is also projected to garner 35.7 per cent votes, AAP 23.6 per cent, and INC 18.6 per cent.
Manipur: In Manipur, the BJP is eyeing a satisfactory win with a win of 25-29 seats, while the Congress 20-24, Naga People’s Front (NPF) 4-8, and others 3-7 in the 60-member Assembly. In terms of vote share, the BJP is projected to get 38.7 per cent votes, an increase of 2.4 per cent as compared to 2017, while the Congress will also witness a decline in its vote share from 35.1 per cent in 2017 to 33.1 per cent in 2022 elections.
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