NIO Stock Hits 18-Month Low As CEO Questions Self-Driving’s Payoff — ‘If Users Are Unwilling To Pay,’ Where Is The Value?

About 20% of used-car owners subscribe to Nio’s paid smart-driving service, while new Nio and Onvo buyers receive five years free.

• CEO William Li said autonomous driving must prove customers will pay and deliver measurable safety improvements.
• Li said Nio’s assisted-driving system has logged over 9.14 billion kilometers and avoided or mitigated 9.07 million potential accidents.
• Nio is promoting Dutch subscriptions at 576 euros per month, while registrations for its premium brand fell 89.4% to just 11 through September.

U.S.-listed shares of Nio, Inc. (NIO) touched an 18-month low on Wednesday as CEO William Li laid out two tests for autonomous driving’s next phase: customers must be willing to pay, and they must see measurable evidence that the tech is safer than human drivers.

Nio’s U.S.-listed shares fell to $3.32 during Wednesday’s session, their lowest since April 2025 and 95% below their January 2021 record of $66.99. 

Nio CEO Puts Paying Customers First

Speaking at the World Intelligent Connected Vehicles Conference in Beijing, Li put the commercial value of autonomous driving ahead of technical promises. “In the second half of autonomous driving, the core is still whether it can create value for users,” he said, EV noted, citing National Business Daily.

“There are two very important indicators: first, how many users are actually willing to pay? If users are unwilling to pay, there is no real creation of user value.” Nio’s subscription model provides an early test: new Nio and Onvo buyers receive five years of complimentary smart-driving access, while used-car owners pay 380 yuan ($56.90) a month. Li said on the September earnings call that 20% of used-car owners subscribe, calling the paying user base small. 

Nio Wants Safety Gains Drivers Can Measure

Li’s second test was whether customers can recognize a good safety improvement. “The other is safety: whether there can be quantified indicators that let users significantly perceive that autonomous driving really is safer than people driving,” he said.

He called for feedback from insurers and other parties on accident probabilities and rates, while distinguishing technological progress from regulatory compliance.

Li said Nio’s assisted-driving system had accumulated more than 9.14 billion kilometers and 112 million hours of use across more than 950,000 vehicles. He said it had avoided or mitigated more than 9.07 million potential accidents.

Separately, Li cited an assessment by four insurers that Nio’s active safety system reduced users’ accident losses by 38.4% in the first half of 2026. Active safety and assisted driving are distinct functions. The regulatory bar is also rising. China’s mandatory safety standard for Level 3 and Level 4 automated-driving systems takes effect on July 1, 2027, introducing lifecycle safety requirements and testing obligations.

Nio Courts Dutch Drivers As China Cools

Meanwhile, Nio is pitching Dutch drivers an all-in subscription from 576 euros a month as its premium brand struggles to gain traction. The offer includes battery rental, insurance, maintenance, and swap-network access under a 60-month contract covering 12,000 kilometers annually.

Yet Nio-brand registrations in the Netherlands plunged 89.4% to just 11 vehicles in the first nine months. Its smaller Firefly brand accounted for 83 of the group’s 94 registrations. 

The Dutch struggle underscores Nio’s limited overseas cushion as China’s car market contracts. Across its three brands, Nio exported just 748 vehicles in the first eight months, equivalent to 0.28% of deliveries. Meanwhile, China’s passenger-car retail sales fell 28% in September, with new-energy vehicle sales down 16.7%.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About NIO?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for NIO slipped to ‘bearish’ from ‘bullish’ levels a week ago amid ‘normal’ message volume.

One user said, “$NIO i was beating my chest that i bought at $3.32 , but they went through that like hot blade through butter. Hello $3.25 …”

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Another user said, “$NIO If NIO wanted to stop cash burning in pointless swap stations and focus on sales, we’d be much better off. Look at CATL, the battery provider for almost every EV. They started mass swap station production, lost net profit, even though revenue went up 56%.”

View this Stocktwits post

Nio’s U.S.-listed stock has declined 34% year-to-date.

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