Nepal disaster a serious warning for Himalayan region: Tikender Panwar

Environmentalist Tikender Singh Panwar urges decommissioning vulnerable hydropower projects in the Himalayas. Citing the Nepal disaster, he warns of rising GLOF risks and says nature may force closures if policymakers don't act first.

Nepal Disaster a Stark Warning

Amid growing concerns over extreme weather events, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and rapidly changing climatic and geological risks in the Himalayan region, environmentalist and member of the Himalayan Executive Committee (HEC) on Urbanisation in the Indian Himalayan Region, Tikender Singh Panwar, has called for the decommissioning of hydropower projects located in highly vulnerable areas before nature itself forces their closure.

Panwar, a former Deputy Mayor of Shimla, said the devastation witnessed in Nepal should be treated as a serious warning for the entire Himalayan region, arguing that the frequency and scale of disasters are likely to increase as temperatures rise, glaciers and permafrost melt, and thousands of glacial lakes become increasingly unstable.

Rising Frequency of Disasters and Glacial Lake Threats

Speaking with ANI in Shimla on Friday, Panwar said the Himalayan region was already recognised as a global climate vulnerability hotspot because of its exposure to intense precipitation, but the experience of Nepal showed that the threat could no longer be viewed only through the prism of heavy rainfall. "The experience from Nepal is telling us that it is not only heavy precipitation. Although this was known earlier, many of our geomorphologists and geoscientists have repeatedly been saying that permafrost and GLOFs -- glacial lake outbursts -- are a major challenge. That challenge has now come to the forefront," Panwar said.

He said the most important lesson from the recent events was that the frequency of such disasters was unlikely to decline. "The frequency is going to increase substantially. It is not going to decrease. On the one hand, we were already in a global vulnerability hotspot where we were struggling with excessive rainfall. But now, even when there is no rainfall, we can face devastation. Nepal has made that very clear. Water went up to 300 metres; can you believe it?" he said.

Panwar said thousands of glacial lakes have developed across the Himalayan region and their future instability could pose a major threat to downstream settlements and infrastructure. "There are thousands of such lakes that have formed across the Himalayas, and they themselves represent a challenge. They will melt," he said.

Questioning the Science Behind Hydropower Projects

He said the developments should force policymakers to reconsider the continued expansion of hydropower infrastructure in vulnerable river valleys. Panwar said nature was already demonstrating what could happen to hydropower projects located in fragile terrain and argued that India should learn the lesson before more catastrophic events occur. "Look at how many projects have been destroyed along the way. I think this is a lesson of extreme importance and extreme priority that we must learn in the Indian Himalayan region," he said.

He questioned the scientific basis on which several hydropower projects were planned and constructed decades ago. "When we were building hydropower projects, what was the science that we had? What was the science that we were following in the past?" Panwar asked.

He referred to recommendations associated with the BK Shukla Committee, which had examined restrictions on development at higher elevations, saying that the earlier approach had included a recommendation against hydropower development above 7,000 feet. "The primary science was what we call the BK Shukla Committee, which said no hydropower above 7,000 feet. But then some scientists came together and said, 'No, no, we can go ahead.' At that time, at most, what we had done was the Environment Impact Assessment. But that EIA is very localised. Now GLOF is not localised. Something that was supposed to happen was not even visualised," he said.

Panwar said the conventional EIA framework was insufficient to assess risks that operate across entire watersheds and international boundaries.

The Case for Decommissioning: Sutlej Basin at Risk

He cited the Sutlej basin as an example, pointing to the concentration of hydropower projects along the river and warning of the possible cascading consequences of a major glacial lake outburst or large-scale geological event upstream. "If you take the Sutlej, we have repeatedly talked about bumper-to-bumper projects that are proposed and developed along it. You have Khab, Shongtong, Jhangi, Jhangi Thopan, Thopan Powari, Shongtong Karcham, Wangtoo Karcham, Nathpa Jhakri, Rampur, Luhri, Koldam and then Bhakra," he said.

"If there is a melting GLOF, all these projects can be devastated. Therefore, the point I am making now is that we need to start thinking about decommissioning some projects. Some projects will not be able to withstand what is coming. Before nature decommissions them, we should think about decommissioning them ourselves," Panwar said.

He said similar discussions about withdrawing infrastructure from extremely vulnerable locations had already begun in parts of the Global North and the West, and argued that India should not wait for disasters to force policy changes.

Rethinking Energy Needs and Disaster Scale

Panwar also rejected the argument that Himalayan hydropower infrastructure must continue expanding simply to meet the electricity requirements of major cities. "When the argument comes that how will you take electricity to Delhi and the metropolitan cities, we say, if you are so keen, put nuclear plants inside Delhi," he said.

He said the scale of energy released in the recent disaster in Nepal illustrated the enormous destructive potential of such events, adding that the reported human toll and number of missing people demonstrated that the issue could no longer be treated as a conventional disaster-management challenge. "This is not that simple. We have lost people; there is no final estimate. Missing means that you may not be able to recover them at all. It is a huge catastrophe hitting us, something that was not happening at this frequency earlier, but is bound to happen much more frequently now," he said.

Accelerated Warming and Permafrost Thaw

Panwar linked the increasing vulnerability to the rapid warming of the Himalayan region. "If the average rise in temperature globally since the pre-industrial period is around 1.4 degrees, in the Himalayas it is 1.8 degrees. They are already warming. Forecasts for next year are suggesting that it could reach two degrees. That is enough," he said.

He said rising temperatures were accelerating the thawing of permafrost that had remained frozen for millions of years. "Permafrost that has remained buried for millions of years is suddenly coming out. And below it are rocks as well. The scale of these rocks and debris has the capacity to devastate entire settlements," he said.

A New Development Model for the Himalayas

Panwar said the recent developments should also force a fundamental rethink of India's approach to infrastructure development in the Himalayan states. "The Himalayan people were not responsible for all the mess that has happened across the globe -- carbon emissions and the rise in temperature. But the question is, how do we build? What do we propose as our future development strategies?" he said.

He criticised the current approach to road construction and widening in the mountains, saying infrastructure planning needed to be brought in line with the ecological and geographical characteristics of the region. "The way we are building highways through the NHAI or carrying out road widening is not going to be sustainable. The lesson we need to learn is that development has to be in sync with nature. If you ask me, the language should be based on ecology and geography," he said.

Rejecting 'Plains' Models in the Mountains

Panwar said the Himalayan region could not simply replicate the urban and construction models followed in the plains. "You cannot expect large Pathankots to be constructed in the Himalayas. Unfortunately, this is exactly what we are doing. Go to Kullu and other urban settlements and smaller towns; we are trying to replicate exactly the same building typologies that we use in the plains," he said.

"The Himalayas are at elevation and are the youngest mountain range. Their development model has to be different," he added.

Redefining 'Safe Distances' from Rivers

Panwar said recent disasters also required policymakers to rethink conventional definitions of safe distances from rivers and streams. "If there is a 300-metre elevation of water where water was flowing, then the traditional and conventional way in which we used to define the riverbank -- perhaps 10 metres -- will no longer work. The riverbank cannot now be assumed to be only 10 metres," he said.

"This is something we will definitely talk about: how close can your urban settlements come to the river? A new history is evolving, and it is very important to build this understanding into planning," he said. He said geomorphological mapping should become the foundation for deciding where roads, tunnels, hospitals, towns and other infrastructure could safely be developed.

Role of the Himalayan Executive Committee (HEC)

Panwar said the HEC, of which he is a member, is primarily mandated to examine urbanisation in the Indian Himalayan Region and does not have the mandate to comprehensively deal with transboundary GLOF and geopolitical issues. However, he said the committee could examine questions relating to elevation, urbanisation, watersheds and the nature of urban settlements in the Himalayas. "We will definitely be talking about elevation. We will definitely be talking about what is urban in the Himalayas. We will also ask whether the watershed should be considered an urban phenomenon, because when we consider urbanisation, is it only demographic shifts that we are talking about? We are considering all these aspects," he said.

Call for India-China Cooperation and Dialogue

Backing the Himachal Pradesh Revenue Minister's proposal for an India-China hotline to share information about glacial lakes and emerging hazards, Panwar said communication should not remain confined to national capitals. "It is not just the hotline, but also spatial mapping. We do all the mapping that we can through our satellites, but this becomes all the more pertinent when you have dialogue between two neighbouring countries that share borders," he said.

"Nature does not have borders. Ecology and geography do not have borders. They have their own way of evolving," he said. Panwar said ecological relationships extended beyond human beings and included interactions between mountains, water and biodiversity. "Ecology is not just the relationship of human beings with nature, but also the relationship of nature with nature. How does the mountain speak to water? How does the mountain and water speak to biodiversity? Taking that into consideration is absolutely pertinent," he said.

He said the proposed India-China mechanism should operate not only at the highest diplomatic level but also at the local and administrative levels. "It should be established at a very local level also. It should not be only Beijing talking to New Delhi. Why cannot Reckong Peo talk to a town on the other side of the border?" he asked.

Panwar recalled that communities in regions such as Ladakh had historically maintained dialogue across borders and said modern communication technologies could make such information-sharing more systematic. "I think this hotline is the need of the hour, where our officers talk to their officers," he said.

Need for Inter-State Cooperation Among Himalayan States

Panwar also called for Himalayan states to work together rather than approach ecological and infrastructure challenges individually. He said the HEC's broader plan envisaged pathways for implementing recommendations rather than merely preparing reports and releasing them publicly. "The pathways cannot be limited to civil society groups or NGOs. It is a political question. The states have to come together, and the political representatives of the states must come together and talk to each other," he said.

Referring to the Alpine Convention in Europe, he said a similar cooperative framework could be explored for the Himalayan region. "The Alpine Convention is a federal convention where Switzerland speaks to other countries. Why can't our states speak to each other?" Panwar said.

He said Himalayan states needed a common approach on carrying capacity, buildability, geomorphology, risk-informed planning and infrastructure development.

BRICS and the Global South's Role

Panwar said the BRICS grouping and the wider Global South also had an important role to play in addressing climate vulnerability and developing alternatives to conventional models of growth. Referring to the BRICS theme of "Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability," he said the grouping offered an opportunity for countries of the Global South to discuss not only climate change but also broader development models and geopolitical challenges. "I think BRICS has a very large role to play. It is not just about climate, but also about how we evolve as a space in the current geopolitical situation, where we are being bulldozed by the Global North," he said.

"BRICS offers a great opportunity for India, China, South Africa and Brazil to bring in alternatives -- alternatives that are more pro-people, where we have Global South-to-South dialogue. It is not just climate; it goes far beyond that," Panwar said. He said the lessons emerging from Nepal should be part of this wider conversation and that countries of the Global South could learn from each other's experiences in climate resilience, infrastructure planning, disaster preparedness and ecological governance.

Panwar said BRICS could become an important platform for sharing knowledge and developing people-centric alternatives to development models that have increased ecological pressure. "There is a lot that we need to learn from each other. Not just sharing commodities, but also learning how they have evolved, how they have developed, how we are developing, and what can be shared -- information, as our Revenue Minister rightly pointed out. There is a lot that has to be learned," he said.

Revisiting the Entire Design of Development

Panwar said the Himalayan environmental crisis could not be addressed solely by environmental organisations and required the integration of ecology with economics, governance and politics. He said Himalayan states should not be expected to follow the same economic model as predominantly industrialised plains states while bearing disproportionate ecological and disaster risks. "The entire design of development in the Himalayas has to be revisited. The question is no longer simply how much we can build; it is what the Himalayas can sustain," Panwar said.

He favoured greater reliance on decentralised renewable energy, including solar power, to reduce pressure on fragile mountain ecosystems and said future development strategies must be based on carrying capacity, geomorphology, climate risk and local ecological conditions.

Panwar said the Nepal disaster should be seen not merely as an event in a neighbouring country but as a warning for India. "We should not simply look at Nepal and say it has happened there. It is happening here in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh as well," he said.

(ANI)

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by Asianet Newsable English staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)