Monsoon Stalled in Maharashtra, Further Progress Delayed, Says IMD

The IMD has reported that the advancement of the Southwest Monsoon in Maharashtra is stalled. The delay is attributed to the absence of favourable conditions like a strong Arabian Sea surge, leading to isolated rainfall for the next 4-5 days.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday said the advancement of the Southwest Monsoon over the remaining parts of Maharashtra has remained stalled over the past few days due to the absence of favourable large-scale meteorological conditions.

According to a press release issued by IMD Mumbai, the Southwest Monsoon had advanced over parts of South Konkan and adjoining areas of South Madhya Maharashtra on June 8. However, further progress has been delayed.

Reasons for Stalled Monsoon

The weather office said the current monsoon flow lacks a strong surge from the Arabian Sea, which is generally responsible for enhanced moisture incursion and widespread rainfall supporting further monsoon advancement.

It noted that low-level southwesterly winds associated with the monsoon circulation have weakened over the Arabian Sea, resulting in reduced moisture transport towards the Maharashtra coast and interior regions.

The IMD also said the cross-equatorial flow over the western Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea, a major source of moisture for the Southwest Monsoon, has weakened in the recent period, leading to a reduction in monsoon activity.

Further, the department stated that significant monsoon weather systems, including low-pressure areas or cyclonic circulations over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, as well as an offshore trough of sufficient intensity along the west coast, are currently absent.

According to the IMD, prevailing large-scale circulation patterns, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), do not presently indicate strong support for monsoon advancement over the remaining parts of Maharashtra.

Forecast and Future Outlook

As a result, rainfall activity over most parts of the state is likely to remain isolated during the next four to five days, the weather office said.

The IMD added that current numerical weather guidance suggests an increase in rainfall activity over the Konkan belt around June 24-25.

The department said synoptic conditions are being continuously monitored for any change that may support further advancement of the Southwest Monsoon over Maharashtra.

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