India Cuts 2026-27 Foodgrain Production Target By 2.63 Million Tonnes Amid Drought And El Niño Fears

A weaker monsoon, rising drought stress and changing water availability are reshaping crop planning across India, prompting fresh calculations ahead of the crucial Rabi season.

India has set a lower foodgrain production target for the 2026-27 agricultural year as policymakers respond to drought conditions, uneven monsoon rainfall and the growing influence of El Niño on farming prospects.

The Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare has fixed the overall foodgrain production target at 373.93 million tonnes, which is 2.63 million tonnes lower than the estimated output for 2025-26.

Announcing the targets on September 29, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said the government had considered reservoir levels, soil moisture conditions, water availability and state-level assessments before finalising the figures. Of the overall target, 177.72 million tonnes has been earmarked for the upcoming Rabi season.

The government is also urging states to avoid water-intensive crops in regions facing rainfall shortages and instead focus on crops such as pulses and oilseeds where water conditions are more constrained.

The decision comes after an uneven southwest monsoon season that left several agricultural regions grappling with prolonged dry spells despite some improvement in nationwide rainfall figures toward the end of September.

While India's overall monsoon deficit narrowed to about 12 per cent by late September, conditions varied sharply across regions. In many farming areas, erratic rainfall patterns failed to replenish soil moisture adequately and in some locations intense short-duration rainfall caused additional crop stress.

The situation has translated into drought conditions across large parts of the country at a critical point in the agricultural calendar, with kharif crops nearing harvest and Rabi sowing preparations underway.

Drought Conditions Spread Across Major Agricultural States

Maharashtra and Karnataka have emerged among the most affected states.

Maharashtra has declared drought in 265 of its 358 talukas, while Karnataka progressively expanded its list of drought-hit taluks during September as conditions worsened.

Andhra Pradesh has also reported significant stress, while areas in Telangana, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Punjab have experienced notable rainfall shortages and moisture deficits.

According to data from the India Drought Monitor, around 52.5 per cent of the country's area was under dry or drought conditions as of September 16, a sharp increase from roughly 38.9 per cent a month earlier.

The impact has already been reflected in kharif cultivation.

By September 11, total kharif acreage stood at 109.65 million hectares, down from 111.25 million hectares during the corresponding period last year.

Rice recorded the largest decline. Paddy sowing covered 42.68 million hectares, nearly 1.7 million hectares lower than the previous year. Significant reductions were reported in Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra.

The decline highlights how rainfall shortages have influenced planting decisions in key crop-producing regions.

Water-Based Planning To Guide Rabi Decisions

Facing uncertain moisture conditions and strengthening El Niño, the agriculture ministry has directed states to prepare district-level Rabi strategies based on water availability rather than following standard sowing patterns.

Local plans will consider rainfall performance, reservoir storage, irrigation access, soil moisture and expected weather conditions.

Agricultural authorities will also conduct district-level groundwater assessments to determine which crops and crop varieties are most suitable under prevailing circumstances.

The exercise forms part of preparations under the Khet Bachao Abhiyan, which will run from October 22 to November 30. The campaign will focus on soil health, scientific farming support and encouraging crop diversification, particularly in areas where traditional choices may be difficult to sustain.

Despite the growing drought footprint, government officials maintain that the overall agricultural situation remains manageable.

Chouhan said challenges are concentrated in specific areas rather than representing a nationwide crisis. He also expressed confidence regarding fertiliser availability and overall kharif production prospects.

However, the lower output target itself reflects caution.

With El Niño expected to strengthen further and moisture conditions remaining fragile in several regions, policymakers appear to be preparing for a season in which water management may become just as important as rainfall itself.