IMD predicts normal monsoon in 2023, El-Nino to impact later

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that there is a possibility of receiving 96 per cent (+-5 per cent) rainfall of long period average this monsoon season. The IMD DGM M Mohapatra said normal monsoon season can be expected between June and September this year.   

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said that the country will experience a normal monsoon in 2023. The weather agency, however, maintained that El-Nino conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season in India which could affect the rains.

"The seasonal rainfall during the monsoon is probably 96% of the Long Period Average. The MME estimate for rainfall during the southwest monsoon season in 2023 was created using April starting conditions," according to a statement from IMD. Additionally, it stated that throughout the equatorial Pacific area, the La-Nina conditions have transitioned to Neutral conditions.

The El Nio or El Nio-Southern Oscillation is characterised by a rise in sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It happens every two to seven years and has the ability to disturb weather patterns all throughout the planet, especially in India.

If El Nino conditions continue throughout the monsoon, it may influence the intensity of rainfall, causing challenges for farmers who have already been hammered by unseasonal rains as global climate patterns change.

The forecast indicates the rainfall could be normal in the southern peninsula — Karnataka, Kerala, Goa, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu — as well as in East Central India including Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Odisha, and Jammu & Kashmir in the north.

However, there is a larger likelihood of below-normal rains over areas of Northwest India, including Haryana, Uttarakhand, and Rajasthan, as well as parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Telangana.

Unseasonal rains and hailstorms in March damaged rabi crops in large parts of the country, causing losses to thousands of farmers. The government, however, said wheat production was not impacted due to the unseasonal rains.