BJP poised to win in Uttarakhand again; but Harish Rawat top CM choice: Survey

A new survey has revealed that the Bharatiya Janata Party could emerge as the single largest party in Uttarakhand if elections were to be done today. The state is due for elections in February 2022. The term of the 70-member assembly will end on March 23.

According to the survey done by Jan Ki Baat, at least 45 per cent of those surveyed endorsed the BJP while 43 per cent were seen to be backing the Congress. Another 12 per cent of the people supported the Aam Aadmi Party.

The survey, conducted between September 20 and September 26, found that there was anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami. However, 36 per cent of people still feel that it could be a factor if elections were to be held today. More crucially, it will be 19 per cent of the undecided people who could decide the fate of Dhami in Uttarakhand.

The Jan Ki Baat survey found that 55 per cent of respondents believed that there was no anti-incumbency against the party. However, 60 per cent of those surveyed pointed out that ticket distribution will be a key factor in determining BJP's success. According to Jan Ki Baat, there has been anger against sitting MLAs.

But the fact that the BJP has changed chief ministers in the state thrice could hurt the party. At least 64 per cent of the respondents said that the frequent change in the Uttarakhand leadership could have an adverse impact on the BJP.

A deeper analysis of the Jan Ki Baat data reveals that 59 per cent of the respondents from the Scheduled Caste preferred the Congress while 62 per cent of the Brahmin caste respondents sided with the BJP. Among the Other Backward Classes, 62 per cent of OBC respondents preferred a BJP government in the state.

An overwhelming 78 per cent of respondents from the Muslim community backed the Congress to form the government in Uttarakhand.

However, the survey data suggest the AAP chipping away the votes from the Congress, which may impact the final outcome for the Grand Old Party. 

The one aspect, that the survey highlighted was that despite the Congress coming second, when it came to the most preferred chief ministerial choice, Harish Rawat was the clear favourite.

At least 40 per cent of the respondents endorsed Harish Rawat while Chief Minister Dhami received the backing of just 25 per cent of those surveyed.

As for issues that are likely to dominate an election in Uttarakhand, 43 per cent cited unemployment followed by 20 per cent who raised health and water issues and 13 per cent who mentioned education.