ABP-CVoter survey: Yogi Adityanath to retain Uttar Pradesh, but no repeat of 2017 sweep

By Asianet Newsable English | First Published Sep 4, 2021, 8:52 AM IST

Nearly a month after the Asianet News Mood of the Voters survey projected the return of Yogi Adityanath in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh election, another survey has zeroed in on the same projection.

Nearly a month after the Asianet News Mood of the Voters survey projected the return of Yogi Adityanath in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh election, another survey has zeroed in on the same projection.

The ABP-CVoter survey has projected that the Yogi Adityanath-led Bharatiya Janata Party will retain power in India's most populous state in the forthcoming elections scheduled for February-March 2022.

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Also Read: Yogi Adityanath's report card

The Asianet News survey showed 48 per cent of the people in the state favouring Yogi Adityanath in the state assembly elections.

Interestingly, the CVoter survey notes that while the BJP and its allies could improve their voter share marginally, in terms of the number of seats, they are likely to take a massive hit of 62 seats.

Vote share: Mayawati's loss is Akhilesh's gain

A closer examination of the data suggests shows the BJP and allies gaining 41.8 per cent of the votes in the next election compared to 41.4 per cent in the 2017 polls. Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party is seen as the biggest gainer in terms of vote share, with a likely 30.2 per cent in 2022 compared to just 23.6 per cent in the 2017 elections.

Also Read: Brahmins, non-Yadav OBCs back BJP in UP election 2022?

The survey suggests that Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party will take a massive hit, with the party staring at a 6.5 per cent dip in vote share and is projected to lose at least five more seats.

Seat share: BJP in driver's seat, but the 'Cycle' is catching up

According to the CVoter data, the BJP could return to power with an absolute majority once again. However, unlike 2017, when it swept the state with victory on 325 seats out of the total of 403, the elections in 2022 could see it losing in over 60 seats and end up with a tally of 259 to 269 seats.

The 'Cycle' (Akhilesh's party symbol) is projected to gain around 65 seats and get its seat tally back to the three-figure mark after its disastrous performance in the 2017 election.

Mayawati, meanwhile, needs to up the ante if she is to make an impact on the outcome of the assembly polls. The CVoter projects that Mayawati could end up with 14 seats, five less than the 19 seats she won in 2017.

Another poll thrashing in the offing for Congress?

The CVoter survey paints yet another grim picture of the Congress in Uttar Pradesh.

The Congress could hit rock bottom in Uttar Pradesh as projections show the party losing in terms of vote share (6.3 in 2017, 5.1 in 2022) and seat share. The Grand Old Party party is expected to win just five seats.

Now, it remains to be seen whether Akhilesh does form an alliance with the Congress and risk losing ground as he did in the last election.

Also Read: Will Ram Mandir impact UP election 2022?

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