For India, a strong El Niño is closely watched because of its influence on the southwest monsoon, which provides nearly 70% of the country's annual rainfall. Historically, several El Niño years have been associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall, increasing the risk of drought in some regions and affecting agricultural output.
At the same time, El Niño does not always mean uniformly dry conditions. Some parts of India may experience erratic rainfall patterns, including periods of intense rain that can trigger floods and landslides. Higher temperatures could also increase the frequency and severity of heatwaves, particularly across northern, central and western India. Any disruption to rainfall could impact crop production, food prices, reservoir levels and rural livelihoods, making the phenomenon a major concern for policymakers and farmers alike.
Risks to Agriculture, Economy and Public Health
The consequences of a strong El Niño could extend well beyond weather patterns. Reduced crop yields may affect food security and agricultural incomes, while water shortages could impact industries and power generation.
In Southeast Asia, drier conditions could increase the likelihood of forest and peatland fires, leading to haze pollution that often spreads across national borders. Combined with existing economic pressures such as rising energy costs and global uncertainty, climate-related disruptions could place additional strain on households and governments.
Whether it is officially labeled a "Godzilla" El Niño or simply a strong El Niño event, experts agree that the risks are substantial. From droughts and heatwaves to floods and agricultural losses, the phenomenon has the potential to affect millions of people across Southeast Asia and India. As climate extremes become more common, preparedness and resilience will be crucial in reducing the impact of future weather shocks.