Where does Pakistan keep its nuclear arsenal? Locations revealed through maps and satellite imagery

Pakistan is grappling with a severe economic crisis, marked by frequent protests against skyrocketing fuel prices and exorbitant power bills. Petrol is being sold at an alarming rate of Rs 300 per liter, and extended power outages plague cities across the nation. Despite repeated attempts to secure financial aid from China and Gulf nations, Pakistan reluctantly accepted stringent conditions imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to secure a bailout. However, amid this economic turmoil, Pakistan appears to remain committed to expanding its nuclear arsenal.

Growing Nuclear Arsenal, as per Research

According to a research report by the Federation of American Scientists, Pakistan is gradually bolstering its nuclear arsenal, with more warheads, improved delivery systems, and an expanding fissile material production industry. The report highlights the presence of newer launchers and facilities at Pakistani army garrisons and air force bases, which are seemingly connected to Pakistan's nuclear capabilities.

"Pakistan continues to gradually expand its nuclear arsenal with more warheads, more delivery systems, and a growing fissile material production industry," it said.

"Analysis of commercial satellite images of construction at Pakistani army garrisons and air force bases shows what appear to be newer launchers and facilities that might be related to Pakistan's nuclear forces," the report added.

Estimated Nuclear Stockpile

The research estimates that Pakistan now possesses approximately 170 nuclear warheads. Moreover, the report underscores that Pakistan is currently producing enough fissile material to manufacture 14 to 27 new warheads annually.

"The US Defense Intelligence Agency projected in 1999 that Pakistan would have 60 to 80 warheads by 2020 (US Defense Intelligence Agency 1999, 38), but several new weapon systems have been fielded and developed since then, which leads us to a higher estimate," the research stated.

"With several new delivery systems in development, four plutonium production reactors, and an expanding uranium enrichment infrastructure, Pakistan’s stockpile has the potential to increase further over the next several years. The size of this projected increase will depend on several factors, including how many nuclear-capable launchers Pakistan plans to deploy, how its nuclear strategy evolves, and how much the Indian nuclear arsenal grows," the report added.

It further stated, "We estimate that the country’s stockpile could potentially grow to around 200 warheads by the late 2020s, at the current growth rate. But unless India significantly expands its arsenal or further builds up its conventional forces, it seems reasonable to expect that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal will not continue to grow indefinitely but might begin to level off as its current weapons programs are completed."

(Image Source: Federation of American Scientists report)

Nuclear-Capable Aircraft and Air-Delivered Weapons

Among the aircraft with a likely nuclear delivery role are Pakistan's Mirage III and Mirage V fighter squadrons. These fighter-bombers are stationed at two bases, including Masroor Air Base near Karachi, which houses three Mirage squadrons. Masroor Air Base outside Karachi houses the 32nd Wing with three Mirage squadrons: 7th Squadron (“Bandits”), 8th Squadron (“Haiders”), and 22nd Squadron (“Ghazis”).

Additionally, the report notes the presence of a possible nuclear weapons storage site located five kilometers northwest of the Masroor base.

The other Mirage base is Rafiqui Air Base near Shorkot, which is home to the 34th Wing with two Mirage squadrons: the 15th Squadron (“Cobras”) and the 27th Squadron (“Zarras”). 

"The Mirage V is believed to have been given a strike role with Pakistan’ small arsenal of nuclear gravity bombs, while the Mirage III has been used for test launches of Pakistan’s Ra’ad air-launched cruise missiles (ALCM), as well as the follow-on Ra’ad-II. The Pakistani Air Force has added an aerial refueling capability to the Mirage, a capability that would greatly enhance the nuclear strike mission," the report noted. 

The air-launched, dual-capable Ra’ad ALCM is believed to have been test-launched at least six times, most recently in February 2016. "There is no available evidence to suggest that either Ra’ad system had been deployed as of July 2023; however, one potential deployment site could eventually be Masroor Air Base outside Karachi, which is home to several Mirage squadrons and includes unique underground facilities that might be associated with nuclear weapons storage and handling," the report highlighted.

The research further noted, "Several reports suggest that Pakistan may intend to incorporate the dual-capable Ra’ad ALCM onto the JF-17 so that the newer aircraft could eventually take over the nuclear strike role from the Mirage III/Vs.

(Image Source: Federation of American Scientists report)

Stating that the nuclear capability of PAF's legacy F-16 aircraft is 'uncertain', the report noted, "The F-16A/Bs are based with the 38th Wing at Mushaf (formerly Sargodha) Air Base, located 160 kilometers northwest of Lahore in northeastern Pakistan. Organized into the 9th and 11th Squadrons (“Griffins” and “Arrows” respectively), these aircraft have a range of 1,600 km (extendable when equipped with drop tanks) and most likely are equipped to each carry a single nuclear bomb on the centerline pylon. If the F-16s have a nuclear strike mission, the nuclear gravity bombs attached to them most likely are not stored at the base itself but are potentially kept at the Sargodha Weapons Storage Complex, located 10 km to the south."

"In a crisis, the bombs could quickly be transferred to the base, or the F-16s could disperse to bases near underground storage facilities and receive the weapons there. Pakistan appears to be reinforcing the munitions bunkers, adding new tunnels, and installing extra security perimeters at the Sargodha complex," it added.

"The newer F-16C/Ds are based with the 39th Wing at Shahbaz Air Base outside Jacobabad in northern Pakistan. The wing upgraded to F-16C/Ds from Mirages in 2011 and, so far, has one squadron: the 5th Squadron (known as the “Falcons”). The base has undergone significant expansion, with numerous weapons bunkers added since 2004. As for the F-16A/Bs, if the base has a nuclear mission, the weapons attached to F-16C/Ds most probably are stored elsewhere in special storage facilities. Some F-16s are also visible at Minhas (Kamra) Air Base northwest of Islamabad, although these might be related to aircraft industry at the base," the report further read.

Land-Based Ballistic Missiles

Pakistan is reported to have six operational nuclear-capable, solid-fuel, road-mobile ballistic missile systems, encompassing short-range options like Abdali (Hatf-2), Ghaznavi (Hatf-3), and the medium-range Ghauri (Hatf-5) and Shaheen-II (Hatf-6). Two other systems, the medium-range Shaheen-III and the MIRVed Ababeel, are currently in development.

"The Pakistani road-mobile ballistic missile force has undergone significant development and expansion over the past two decades. This includes possibly eight or nine missile garrisons, including four or five along the Indian border for short-range systems (Babur, Ghaznavi, Shaheen-I, Nasr) and three or four other garrisons further inland for medium-range systems (Shaheen-II and Ghauri)," the report said.

Land-Based Missile Garrisons

The report also highlights that Pakistan maintains at least five missile bases that could play a role in its nuclear forces. These bases include Akro Garrison, Gujranwala Garrison, Khuzdar Garrison, Pano Aqil Garrison, and Sargodha Garrison.

"The total number and location of Pakistan’s nuclear-capable missile bases and facilities remains unknown. In particular, it is highly challenging to discern between Pakistani military bases intended to serve conventional-only strike roles and those intended to serve dual-capable or nuclear-specific strike roles. Analysis of commercial satellite imagery suggests that Pakistan maintains at least five missile bases that could serve a role in Pakistan’s nuclear forces," the report said.

(Image Source: Federation of American Scientists report)

1. The Akro Garrison, situated roughly 18 kilometers north of Hyderabad in Sindh Province, Pakistan and around 145 kilometers away from the Indian border, has seen continuous expansion since 2004. Covering an area of approximately 6.9 square kilometers, it features six missile TEL garages designed for 12 launchers and includes a unique underground complex with two cross-shaped sections connected by a central corridor and covered access ramps leading to two buildings on either side.

2. The Gujranwala Garrison, one of Pakistan's largest military complexes, spans approximately 30 square kilometers in Punjab Province, situated roughly 60 kilometers from the Indian border. Since 2010, it has expanded to include a TEL launcher area adjacent to a conventional munitions storage site, featuring two sections with launcher garages, a potential weapons loading hall, and reinforced embankments connected to a fortified weapons storage bunker. Additionally, a technical area for launcher servicing is located south of the main TEL area, with potential provisions for a third TEL section within the security perimeter.

3. The Khuzdar Garrison, positioned around 220 kilometers west of Sukkur in Balochistan Province, is the farthest known missile garrison from the Indian border. It consists of a northern section and a southern section, which houses the TELs (Transporter Erector Launchers) and expanded in late-2017 to include three more TEL garages, totaling six. Additionally, the southern section features multi-story weapon handling buildings with covered ramps leading to a potential underground nuclear storage area, reminiscent of the one at the Akro Garrison. Commercial satellite imagery has also identified likely nuclear-capable missile launchers, potentially Ghauri or Shaheen-II TELs, at Khuzdar. An eastern section initially designated for TEL garages was under construction over a decade ago but appears to have been abandoned.

4. The Pano Aqil Garrison, situated just 85 kilometers from the Indian border in the northern part of Sindh Province, encompasses several sections across an area of nearly 20 square kilometers. The double-fenced TEL area, located 1.8 kilometers northeast of the primary garrison, features eight garages (with three additional ones completed in 2017) designed to accommodate six TELs each, potentially supporting around 50 TELs, although some garage spaces may be allocated for support vehicles. Within the same perimeter, a below-grade weapons storage igloo is connected via a covered ramp to a multi-story TEL loading hall, with a design akin to those at Gujranwala.

5. The Sargodha Garrison, situated in the Kirana Hills and formerly used as a subcritical nuclear test site, displays a unique layout compared to other TEL (Transporter Erector Launcher) areas in Pakistan. It includes 10 dispersed potential TEL garages, along with two garages for maintenance. Additionally, to the east of the conventional munitions storage area, an underground storage facility is built into the mountain range, featuring at least 10 visible entrances and potential facilities for weapon and missile handling.

Ground- and sea-launched cruise missiles

According to the report, Pakistan's ground- and sea-launched cruise missile capabilities are undergoing substantial development. The Babur (Hatf-7), a subsonic, dual-capable cruise missile, is being enhanced with "stealth capabilities," pinpoint accuracy, and terrain-hugging abilities. The original Babur-1 ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCM) have been tested extensively, with reported ranges varying between 350 km and 700 km. Pakistan is upgrading these into Babur-1A missiles, featuring a 450 km range. Furthermore the report stated, an enhanced version known as Babur-2 or Babur-1B GLCM, with an extended 700 km range, is under development, solidifying its role as a strategic defense asset.

Pakistan is also venturing into sea-launched cruise missiles with the Babur-3, designed to have a 450 km range, it added. This sea-based variant is intended to augment Pakistan's credible second-strike capability and deterrence strategy. It is anticipated that the Babur-3 will be deployed on Pakistan Navy's Agosta-90B diesel-electric submarines, effectively establishing a triad of nuclear strike platforms on land, in the air, and at sea. Additionally, Pakistan is developing the Harbah variant, a surface vessel-carried cruise missile, with anti-ship and land-attack capabilities, boasting a range of approximately 290 km, and it has already been deployed on Azmat-class surface ships.

Global Concerns

The continuous expansion of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is not just a concern for India but for the entire world. US President Joe Biden has expressed apprehension, describing Pakistan as "one of the most dangerous nations in the world due to the lack of cohesion in its nuclear security and command and control procedures." This raises international alarm about the implications of Pakistan's nuclear ambitions.