Bid to assassinate Putin: Did Ukraine carry out drone attack or Russia staged 'false flag' operation?

Russia on Wednesday claimed that it had thwarted a 'terrorist' attack by Ukrainian drones on the Kremlin, a failed attempt to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin and promised retaliation. However, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy insisted that it had 'nothing to do' with the alleged attack, suggesting that Moscow 'staged' the alleged drone strike. Meanwhile, the United States noted that the report of the alleged attack should be taken with a 'shaker of salt'.

"We do not attack Putin or Moscow," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on a visit to Finland. "We defend our villages and cities."

Also read: Russia claims twin drone attacks on Kremlin, says strike target was Vladimir Putin

Here's a look at what we know about the alleged drone attack on Kremlin, and the questions raised:

What happened

Two flying objects were spotted on the same trajectory towards the dome of the Senate in the Kremlin complex during the early hours of Wednesday. Russia claimed the drone incident after a series of significant sabotage attacks in the run-up to celebrations for the nation's most important holiday on May 9, commemorating the Soviet victory over the Nazis.

"Today at night, the Kyiv regime attempted to strike the Kremlin residence of the President of the Russian Federation with unmanned aerial vehicles," the Kremlin said.

"Two unmanned vehicles were aimed at the Kremlin... the devices were put out of action," a Kremlin statement said.

Putin was not present in the Kremlin then but at his Novo-Orgaryovo residence outside Moscow.

Also read: Top Russian generals plan to sabotage Putin's war against Ukraine while he has chemotherapy?

Could Ukraine have carried out the drone strike and attempted to kill Putin?

According to foreign affairs experts, it is reasonable to believe Kyiv is behind the attack. However, this has yet to be confirmed. Glenn Diesen, Global Affairs expert, said, "What we do know is that Ukraine's drone attacks against Russia has increased. Even recently a downed drone was found in the outskirts of Moscow. If it's an attack by Kyiv, it's an incredible escalation to an entirely new level because trying to kill the Russian leadership is very extreme. Moscow has stated it reserves the right to retaliate how it sees fit. It's quite possible that Russia will respond in time by targeting the Ukrainian political leadership."

"Furthermore, it also brings us to the question - how this drone made it to the Kremlin. To what extent was it aided by the United States for example in terms of drone technology or intelligence carter about ideal flight paths. It could also represent a direct war between NATO and Russia. The escalation has reached a high point simply because we are at a critical stage of the war," Diesen added.

"Moscow is the most secured city in whole of Russia. Not one, but two drones reached the Kremlin and it is an extreme security breach. Of course, it has some effect. Ukraine has suggested its key objective ahead of this offensive is to spread panic in Russia. This demonstrates perhaps could have been the objective," he noted.

Could the drone strike be a Russian 'false flag' operation?

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia "likely staged" the alleged drone strike on the Kremlin. The US-based think-tank claimed Moscow is behind the incident, calling it an attempt to "bring the war home to a Russian audience and set the conditions for a wider societal mobilisation". 

"Several indicators suggest that the strike was internally conducted and purposefully staged," it wrote in a briefing published on Thursday. 

Other security specialists have questioned Moscow's claim, some of whom have raised the possibility that it was staged for international audiences. They questioned: Why would Russia want its citizens to know it could not intercept a little drone until the very last second?

"I have some serious question[s]," said Former Swedish Prime Minister, Carl Biltd. "Is it really realistic - if the drone was from far away - that no air defence could have intervened until right above the Kremlin itself?"

The ISW noted that Russia has recently beefed up its domestic air defences, including over Moscow. "It is therefore extremely unlikely that two drones could have penetrated multiple layers of air defence and detonated or been shot down just over the heart of the Kremlin in a way that provided spectacular imagery caught nicely on camera," it wrote.

They added that the Kremlin's "immediate, coherent, and coordinated response that the attack was internally prepared in such a way that its intended political effects outweigh its embarrassment."

What has the United States said

The White House said it can't "confirm the authenticity" of reports by Russia that it foiled an overnight attack by Ukrainian drones on the Kremlin. 

Speaking at the White House Wednesday, Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the administration is "aware of the reports but are unable to confirm the authenticity of them at this time." 

"And so I don't want to get into speculation from here about what happened," she added.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also cast doubt on the veracity of the report. "I've seen the reports. I cannot validate them, we simply don't know," Blinken said at an event in Washington. "I would take anything coming out of the Kremlin with a very large shaker of salt." 

Also read: Putin's health worsens: Russian president suffering from 'severe pain, blurred vision, numb tongue'

May 9 parade will go ahead as scheduled

According to the Kremlin, the strike was designed to interfere with Victory Day, which Russia observes on May 9 to remember the Soviet Union's triumph over Nazi Germany in 1945. The Moscow event is likely to draw foreign luminaries.

Sergei Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow, forbade the use of drones in the Russian capital, except for those launched by authorities, not long before the news of the alleged attack came.

Sobyanin did not offer any explanation, saying it would prevent the "illegal use of drones that can hinder the work of law enforcement."

Elsewhere, Russia used Iranian-made drones during its third attack on Ukraine's capital city in six days. Ukraine's Air Force Command said that explosions were heard in Kyiv and elsewhere during the night as Ukrainian air defences shot down 21 of the Russian drones.