A recent study published in Nature Climate Change sheds light on the growing threat of hurricane clusters in the North Atlantic. Here are the key findings:
Hurricane clusters are defined as multiple tropical cyclones occurring back-to-back in the same region.
Historically, 60% of tropical cyclones appear in clusters, not as isolated events, making this a common and important phenomenon to understand.
The North Atlantic is emerging as a new hotspot for hurricane clusters, while such events are declining in the northwestern Pacific.
The research was co-led by Dr Dazhi Xi, climatologist at The University of Hong Kong (HKU), and Dr Wen Zhou, climatologist at Fudan University.
Dr Xi developed a probabilistic model based on storm frequency, duration, and seasonality to explain cluster formation.
When storms strike in rapid succession, communities have less time to recover, increasing destruction, as seen with Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria in 2017.
The study found that synoptic-scale waves, large atmospheric disturbances, boost the likelihood of cluster formation.
A La-Niña-like global warming pattern, where the eastern Pacific warms slower than the west, is linked to the observed shift in cluster locations.
This warming pattern also increases storm frequency and strengthens synoptic waves, contributing to the trend.
The research created a baseline framework to distinguish between randomly occurring clusters and those with physical linkages.
Though the focus was on the Atlantic and Pacific, the new model can be applied to other ocean basins, making it a valuable global forecasting tool.
With continued global warming, particularly in a La-Niña-like pattern, the frequency of cyclone clusters is projected to rise, especially in the Atlantic.
The researchers urge Atlantic coastal countries to develop proactive disaster plans for dealing with more frequent and compounding storm events.
Read more at: Phys.org
Research published in Nature Climate Change